Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5dee81018bb9a94aeeae933e3824b534fad8aaadbd342c2a518e1eddbf88593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,373,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,373,649 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 739 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 1c | 130,609$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.04 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 109,296$6,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,815.08 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 6c | 101,085$5,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,794.13 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 9c | 79,210$6,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,871.03 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 5c | 61,898$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.54 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 5c | 60,594$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146.25 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…8d62backed Yes | 6c | 48,567$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 36,531$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.04 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 6c | 34,820$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.9 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…2265backed Yes | 3c | 28,800$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 25,514$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.51 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 9c | 21,121$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.25 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 5c | 19,231$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,470$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.04 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 18,247$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.22 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 7c | 16,450$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…e32cbacked No | 77c | 16,091$12,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 16,000$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.88 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 15,253$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.11 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e2…9c15backed Yes | 7c | 15,006$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…12a5backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,883$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 9c | 13,476$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb83…306fbacked Yes | 7c | 13,340$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes | 14c | 13,162$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 1c | 12,828$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.09 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…ea7cbacked Yes | 4c | 11,576$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…a537backed Yes | 15c | 11,034$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 6c | 10,563$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.98 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…b7ecbacked Yes | 4c | 10,293$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…8059backed Yes | 6c | 9,694$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 5c | 9,419$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.02 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…1798backed Yes | 5c | 9,293$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 8c | 9,109$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.34 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…63c0backed Yes | 8c | 8,925$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…d0d8backed Yes | 6c | 8,441$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 12c | 7,740$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.47 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed Yes | 10c | 7,478$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.61 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 78c | 7,102$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.16 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 6,399$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…b559backed Yes | 6c | 5,805$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 5,669$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.69 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…bf82backed Yes | 6c | 5,631$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 5c | 5,555$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.41 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 7c | 5,500$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 9c | 5,477$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7f…312ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,437$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 5,205$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Yes | 26c | 5,084$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.98 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1bc3backed Yes | 6c | 4,994$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…e5c9backed Yes | 3c | 4,857$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed Yes | 21c | 4,816$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…9e59backed Yes | 5c | 4,757$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…8e97backed Yes | 16c | 4,719$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 10c | 4,631$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.19 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 7c | 4,396$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.16 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…7d52backed Yes | 23c | 4,320$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…2bb1backed Yes | 13c | 4,106$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…5d01backed Yes | 10c | 3,946$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 3,911$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.45 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 3,821$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…736abacked Yes | 6c | 3,697$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…c55bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,691$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…30b6backed No | 76c | 3,600$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,522$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…7fadbacked Yes | 23c | 3,470$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 14c | 3,333$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,323$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.55 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 6c | 3,292$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 9c | 3,272$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.85 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…d099backed Yes | 24c | 3,248$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…0e36backed Yes | 24c | 3,232$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes | 31c | 3,188$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…bf8dbacked No | 66c | 3,050$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…2c36backed Yes | 4c | 2,928$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 2,887$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…041cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,868$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,846$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…8e6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,809$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed No | 72c | 2,797$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.94 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed Yes | 7c | 2,793$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…3d86backed Yes | 7c | 2,738$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…161cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,684$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 12c | 2,645$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.04 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,581$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8989…9c0fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…3263backed Yes | 5c | 2,400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…6d43backed Yes | 23c | 2,362$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…0e27backed Yes | 7c | 2,350$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 7c | 2,307$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,273$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed No | 65c | 2,269$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.22 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 5c | 2,170$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.