TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e9e…02b7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT5046%23 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.34
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.73
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$304.91
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+666.1%+$3,393.33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$142
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$184
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$147
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$138
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$70
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$122.99
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$596Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$596
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$514.85
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.75
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$528Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$528
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$256.8
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$870Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+152.9%+$1,330.05
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+288.1%+$1,930
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$139.6
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,845Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$662.55
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$102
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.2
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$207
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$69.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,429Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,428.77
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$773Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$773.14
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$202.32
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+38.9%+$8.4
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+559.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$33.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+66.7%+$80
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,120.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+1,120.5%+$919.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+157.5%+$232.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+40.2%+$214.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$36.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$102
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.