Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4bae5b326d8ad4ef51e29b140afd57dc1dfb3c44e1c805209eacb65a656dd7

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,275,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,789,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,275,570 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 991 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7804…7025backed Yes	7c	134,173$8,946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,946.03	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	26cpaid	-76%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	9c	84,779$7,883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,882.69	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	10c	58,499$5,601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,600.92	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	2c	51,453$846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845.72	167	25.1%42 W · 125 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5065…18f9backed Yes	10c	42,095$4,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,419.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-44%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	10c	38,788$3,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,978.01	115	41.7%48 W · 67 L	+7.0wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes	0c	33,552$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.45	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Yes	9c	30,957$2,936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,935.78	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	18c	28,548$5,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,027.04	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2198…ac01backed Yes	5c	26,942$1,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,276.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes	9c	24,290$2,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,257.64	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4262…d125backed Yes	15c	24,103$3,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,640.13	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	8c	23,354$1,768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,768.17	151	24.5%37 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7f…6a3abacked Yes	19c	22,551$4,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,279.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1812…de66backed Yes	4c	22,070$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes	13c	21,568$2,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,827.9	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05f5…24cbbacked Yes	7c	20,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.69	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea1…7453backed Yes	16c	18,308$2,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,900	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Yes	14c	18,033$2,540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,540	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+100.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	16,500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	-71%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes	18c	16,165$2,956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,955.78	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb428…0857backed Yes	0c	16,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	7c	15,978$1,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,182.29	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	3c	15,285$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.22	110	10%11 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes	70c	14,190$9,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,997.78	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…215dbacked Yes	12c	12,912$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.6	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes	10c	12,849$1,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,326.38	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	+5.2wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	8c	12,318$971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$971.31	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b7…7710backed Yes	14c	11,864$1,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,656.39	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes	5c	11,522$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.28	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6b…c7c6backed Yes	25c	11,235$2,806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,806.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	19c	10,366$1,996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,995.84	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-82.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	17c	10,213$1,730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,730.09	192	36.5%70 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed55…d480backed Yes	10c	9,774$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes	18c	9,069$1,653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,652.64	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…3b8ebacked Yes	6c	9,027$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes	9c	9,000$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$810	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked Yes	1c	7,929$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes	3c	7,800$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.89	129	10.9%14 W · 115 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	21c	7,484$1,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,593.11	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8319…470abacked No	32c	7,146$2,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,846.04	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+136.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d12…4342backed Yes	23c	7,119$1,628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,628.07	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…825ebacked Yes	12c	7,115$874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$873.99	16	25%4 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes	13c	7,036$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$914.7	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eeb…bd84backed No	78c	6,813$5,342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470.64	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes	5c	6,772$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.26	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed Yes	14c	6,762$957 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957.48	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	4c	6,703$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x10bf…c877backed Yes	15c	6,667$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x663d…7d23backed Yes	7c	6,347$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5b…2d6ebacked Yes	11c	6,320$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb5…0f93backed Yes	5c	6,215$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x691f…41a1backed Yes	16c	6,173$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.65	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	10c	5,921$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.76	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Yes	19c	5,881$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,098.49	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	10c	5,799$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.5	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes	24c	5,699$1,348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,348.03	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-47%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes	17c	5,377$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$894	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	5,204$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.66	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes	10c	5,164$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.07	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+6.6wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No	66c	5,062$3,347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,715.49	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes	1c	5,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-29%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1e…e547backed Yes	19c	4,934$929 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$929.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No	46c	4,861$2,253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,608.4	119	36.1%43 W · 76 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes	6c	4,704$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.28	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-3.7wins	-0.19per pick	29cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No	49c	4,590$2,263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,327.66	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	2c	4,516$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No	48c	4,374$2,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,287.63	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Yes	3c	4,303$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.74	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes	14c	4,254$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.56	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	60c	4,226$2,557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,669.28	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes	10c	4,100$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f9…8f83backed Yes	10c	4,056$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.08	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	-19%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef9a…5f7dbacked No	38c	4,044$1,517 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,527.06	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes	11c	4,038$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.29	88	23.9%21 W · 67 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a42…9694backed Yes	10c	4,015$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.95	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed No	78c	4,011$3,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$873.67	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes	11c	4,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	10c	3,896$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.2	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	3,822$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.12	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	14c	3,760$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.91	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked Yes	25c	3,754$933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$933.14	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes	21c	3,747$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.42	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No	79c	3,743$2,974 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$769.68	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+5.2wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No	77c	3,651$2,821 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$830.16	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	31cpaid	+156%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x581c…b4cdbacked Yes	0c	3,551$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7217…fdbdbacked Yes	66c	3,500$2,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,314.98	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	29cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9153…0bf7backed Yes	13c	3,487$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	14c	3,448$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.16	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes	18c	3,413$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.16	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x792a…b16dbacked Yes	10c	3,341$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.01	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	13c	3,281$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.91	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.21per pick	31cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa70e…709fbacked Yes	13c	3,277$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes	5c	3,241$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	3c	2,991$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.28	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes	14c	2,943$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.81	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-59%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	15c	2,907$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.14	139	43.2%60 W · 79 L	+7.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c07…01f2backed Yes	6c	2,896$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b0…d7e5backed Yes	6c	2,893$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event