Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc49ce4dc173d079b23921f8d6394121d9b3fcb5112c43fa3194340535444463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,238,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $945,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,238,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 112,064$7,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,209.79 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 46,934$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.26 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 5c | 38,924$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.2 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -76%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 5c | 23,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…3b8ebacked Yes | 5c | 21,103$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 10c | 18,148$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 15,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 15,600$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.16 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…a2c7backed Yes | 0c | 15,591$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 10c | 15,333$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea1…7453backed Yes | 10c | 14,190$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…0857backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,728$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…7f98backed Yes | 2c | 12,090$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…b4cdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,555$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 7c | 11,548$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…0effbacked Yes | 9c | 11,512$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 11,015$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.2 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…41a1backed Yes | 11c | 10,633$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abf4backed Yes | 3c | 10,561$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 7c | 9,872$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.64 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 6c | 9,821$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.49 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 4c | 9,744$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.52 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 9,536$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.4 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 8,400$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 8c | 6,638$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.77 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,561$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.77 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…0bfebacked Yes | 2c | 6,223$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 6,160$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…24cbbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9118backed Yes | 2c | 5,269$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,245$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.57 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 9c | 4,770$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.97 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes | 8c | 4,480$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…e93ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,478$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Yes | 5c | 4,440$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…9c3dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,322$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 6c | 4,254$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 4,232$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,231$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…e35abacked Yes | 3c | 3,859$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 7c | 3,756$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f58…be86backed Yes | 1c | 3,730$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…d4cebacked Yes | 8c | 3,516$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5094…acb9backed Yes | 4c | 3,363$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 2c | 3,096$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 2c | 3,093$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,013$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…1e7cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,594$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,560$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…633bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,522$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 4c | 2,488$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 2,484$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…9694backed Yes | 7c | 2,454$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…e23abacked Yes | 6c | 2,450$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff03…2a65backed Yes | 4c | 2,439$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 2,435$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 2,394$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,380$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…3be2backed Yes | 8c | 2,341$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 9c | 2,341$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 8c | 2,330$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…3c44backed Yes | 4c | 2,222$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 10c | 2,100$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 2c | 2,012$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed Yes | 8c | 1,990$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…5007backed Yes | 2c | 1,986$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed Yes | 5c | 1,919$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 7c | 1,916$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,900$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…18e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,850$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 6c | 1,821$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…295fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,731$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…4dbfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,673$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…aa72backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 8c | 1,599$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 8c | 1,579$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 1,537$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.38 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 10c | 1,502$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…5f0cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,459$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,448$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4d…6c36backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,408$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed Yes | 11c | 1,403$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156a…dd4bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70e…709fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,399$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed Yes | 7c | 1,389$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…960abacked Yes | 9c | 1,358$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…4131backed Yes | 12c | 1,338$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8486…f0a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.