Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6b3dbf83c18026aec29f4fae2108ab635d683d0b4753ae44ccd7fafabc46c6

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,251,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,018,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,251,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 482 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7804…7025backed Yes	16c	105,080$17,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,019.91	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	26cpaid	-76%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	18c	86,033$15,526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,526.1	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	0c	32,610$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.91	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	29,043$2,313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,312.72	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34c4…dd59backed Yes	0c	23,600$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes	3c	22,000$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.99	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-29%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f5…24cbbacked Yes	8c	20,124$1,628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,628.24	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No	73c	19,259$14,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,199.94	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes	15c	19,154$2,819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,818.78	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	18c	15,925$2,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,902.66	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes	22c	15,814$3,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes	9c	15,553$1,416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,416.3	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38d4…9720backed Yes	7c	14,903$1,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,043.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	0c	14,898$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.22	114	19.3%22 W · 92 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes	11c	13,440$1,426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,425.54	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	13,400$886 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$885.6	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+166.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	13,250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	-71%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes	8c	12,766$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,012.44	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+6.1wins	+0.17per pick	37cpaid	+55%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes	2c	12,030$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb50c…215bbacked Yes	2c	10,693$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	0c	10,316$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+4.6wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes	16c	9,815$1,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,570.34	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Yes	26c	9,539$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+100.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb1…85f7backed Yes	8c	7,500$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	7c	5,785$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.59	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	5,668$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.18	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes	15c	5,598$838 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.92	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes	7c	5,569$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.54	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes	2c	5,263$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39a4…c514backed Yes	5c	5,198$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	12c	5,158$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.34	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	18c	5,007$901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.12	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No	77c	5,000$3,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,150	378	44.4%168 W · 210 L	+33.3wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+64.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd992…c365backed Yes	0c	4,667$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Yes	7c	4,428$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.97	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49e9…8f85backed Yes	7c	4,400$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes	14c	4,326$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.68	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-3.7wins	-0.19per pick	29cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	22c	4,323$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.22	80	42.5%34 W · 46 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	25c	4,022$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.74	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.21per pick	31cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes	23c	4,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	17c	4,000$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	0c	3,978$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	151	24.5%37 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea4f…8e12backed Yes	2c	3,866$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed Yes	2c	3,731$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,626$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.97	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddd…bcfdbacked No	80c	3,571$2,855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$716.59	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d4…af03backed Yes	9c	3,410$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.52	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes	9c	3,395$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.7	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed55…d480backed Yes	7c	3,265$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes	12c	3,250$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x665c…e3afbacked Yes	7c	3,234$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes	19c	3,206$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.31	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-47%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd738…1bd3backed Yes	8c	3,200$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04e8…a0bfbacked No	80c	3,000$2,395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$605	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb4c…7746backed Yes	1c	2,910$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes	2c	2,825$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.67	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed No	80c	2,751$2,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$551.26	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	72cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	16c	2,745$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.56	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b12…3f0dbacked Yes	2c	2,737$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	2c	2,732$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e68…d4bebacked Yes	6c	2,707$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc680…e94cbacked Yes	8c	2,693$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.81	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc37…fa31backed No	80c	2,659$2,127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$531.86	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	2,500$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.25	137	14.6%20 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee7…dc5ebacked Yes	2c	2,450$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	6c	2,416$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.05	133	41.4%55 W · 78 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0a…720dbacked Yes	8c	2,390$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes	23c	2,300$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	77c	2,300$1,762 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$537.99	204	46.6%95 W · 109 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca05…7c49backed Yes	2c	2,255$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Yes	7c	2,199$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	4c	2,154$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.86	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No	70c	2,098$1,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.1	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed Yes	24c	2,084$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.67	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	17c	2,061$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.68	180	33.3%60 W · 120 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	9c	2,059$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.23	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…fc34backed No	78c	2,000$1,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes	6c	2,000$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	138	18.1%25 W · 113 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes	26c	2,000$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e0…5211backed Yes	1c	1,961$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes	15c	1,948$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.67	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x872e…73d7backed No	80c	1,925$1,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Yes	18c	1,898$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Yes	6c	1,800$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	1,800$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b18…25e9backed Yes	12c	1,726$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.04	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a59…8d55backed Yes	7c	1,688$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…319bbacked Yes	31c	1,637$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1347…a287backed Yes	29c	1,625$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.22	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	19c	1,600$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x766a…0bfebacked Yes	2c	1,599$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.73	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a06…41c9backed Yes	9c	1,580$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.62	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff03…2a65backed Yes	17c	1,549$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf584…d8dabacked Yes	10c	1,540$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes	6c	1,500$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	132	16.7%22 W · 110 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	30c	1,500$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	27c	1,500$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b98…7ecbbacked Yes	7c	1,472$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes	5c	1,449$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.02	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+58.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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