Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90d15ca9a35a0cef4d67b2e4ec79a77dc98621536af438bccc6f016a59eb0f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,389,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,036,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,389,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 631 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 2c | 230,320$4,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,222.07 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 4c | 191,240$8,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,414.15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 2c | 160,943$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.05 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…3e70backed No | 0c | 119,661$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 1c | 118,918$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.66 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed No | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 4c | 100,000$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,764.58 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1270backed No | 4c | 80,143$3,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,401.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…fa31backed No | 10c | 76,166$7,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,804.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b58…d3d5backed No | 0c | 70,480$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 0c | 68,050$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 3c | 65,488$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.79 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 61,852$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.44 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 7c | 52,884$3,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790.08 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 0c | 50,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8de…be54backed No | 1c | 47,171$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…e18bbacked No | 0c | 44,331$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed No | 5c | 39,482$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 6c | 32,569$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.75 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 14c | 32,552$4,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,511.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 4c | 32,289$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…6700backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 2c | 29,000$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc312…9955backed No | 2c | 27,339$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 55c | 25,013$13,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,266.16 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…41d0backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0543…a6a5backed No | 0c | 23,904$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 0c | 23,877$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 1c | 22,576$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…0effbacked No | 16c | 21,362$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 2c | 20,081$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.45 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…f949backed No | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…76d8backed No | 0c | 19,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 1c | 19,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 73c | 18,480$13,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,054.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 9c | 18,238$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.55 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…50b6backed No | 0c | 18,082$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed No | 68c | 18,054$12,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,315.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 47c | 18,049$8,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,404.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8f6bbacked No | 10c | 17,208$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 36c | 16,856$6,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,012.76 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e73…e6bebacked No | 0c | 15,157$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…4a35backed No | 1c | 13,907$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed No | 6c | 13,000$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.84 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 26c | 12,456$3,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,296.52 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…24cbbacked No | 2c | 12,397$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…7cb7backed No | 4c | 12,275$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…0bc9backed No | 0c | 12,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…d4cebacked No | 2c | 11,339$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…4419backed No | 5c | 11,272$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…e2bdbacked Yes | 73c | 11,227$8,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…6951backed No | 0c | 11,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afe…1bbebacked No | 1c | 10,848$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…aa1fbacked No | 0c | 10,833$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 3c | 10,612$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…3366backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…be87backed No | 2c | 9,557$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e9…9f08backed No | 0c | 9,349$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…d959backed No | 0c | 8,490$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed No | 19c | 8,356$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.01 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7588…9c0abacked No | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked No | 2c | 8,240$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed No | 3c | 7,863$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 8c | 7,657$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.99 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 2c | 7,338$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…319bbacked No | 4c | 7,299$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 6,778$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.78 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 9c | 6,534$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.18 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9222…dcfdbacked No | 2c | 6,102$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 1c | 6,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 7c | 6,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed No | 4c | 6,000$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359b…c290backed No | 1c | 5,833$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…5701backed No | 3c | 5,611$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…e432backed No | 1c | 5,600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 5,555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…3c44backed No | 1c | 5,476$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…0527backed No | 3c | 5,401$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…51afbacked No | 5c | 5,352$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 4c | 5,292$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…eb06backed No | 4c | 5,271$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…7d96backed No | 4c | 5,224$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 31c | 5,048$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.73 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed No | 3c | 5,032$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…78e2backed No | 3c | 4,932$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 4c | 4,836$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…0505backed No | 4c | 4,781$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…e7acbacked No | 2c | 4,759$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…7d23backed No | 1c | 4,754$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 2c | 4,750$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…2ec4backed No | 1c | 4,412$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 20c | 4,228$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.69 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…6914backed No | 1c | 4,215$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…a29dbacked No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…3409backed No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf799…945cbacked No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1320…9388backed No | 1c | 3,906$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…022fbacked No | 1c | 3,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 2c | 3,800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed No | 13c | 3,787$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.