Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360b5ab61e12806d96430a792f43d4c38fa7a33345c7c99db897accb59983db6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $933,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $823,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $933,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 38,562$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.3 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 34,844$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.57 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 1c | 21,575$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked Yes | 2c | 17,625$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 17,376$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,122$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Yes | 2c | 16,582$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,360$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.21 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 15,238$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes | 4c | 14,037$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 12c | 13,794$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.36 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…3ebfbacked Yes | 4c | 13,488$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 7c | 11,225$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.76 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 10,483$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.55 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 16c | 10,145$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…b4cdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 2c | 9,500$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…5902backed Yes | 2c | 9,258$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 17c | 8,400$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 2c | 7,010$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 10c | 6,611$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.58 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…4149backed Yes | 2c | 6,403$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…aba2backed Yes | 1c | 6,140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 15c | 6,020$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 4c | 5,413$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…2d6ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,347$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed Yes | 15c | 5,334$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 5,020$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 4c | 4,937$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,597$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1556…c56fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,446$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…41a1backed Yes | 4c | 4,295$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 4,099$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 4,082$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 4,063$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,880$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…e4d5backed Yes | 1c | 3,853$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 12c | 3,772$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.21 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,653$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…c0a7backed Yes | 2c | 3,353$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 3,193$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.43 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,098$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 16c | 3,090$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.3 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,041$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,894$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…de20backed Yes | 2c | 2,839$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,800$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 2c | 2,732$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…dd75backed Yes | 3c | 2,545$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 4c | 2,541$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb28…3750backed Yes | 18c | 2,532$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,482$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes | 5c | 2,425$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,384$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 8c | 2,292$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 1c | 2,248$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,202$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 2c | 2,105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 12c | 2,040$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.7 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 4c | 2,005$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…5007backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,914$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,883$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4a…8e6fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,875$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,850$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,752$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…3febbacked Yes | 3c | 1,743$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…9edabacked Yes | 3c | 1,740$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7ff1backed Yes | 3c | 1,726$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…2093backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 5c | 1,691$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 2c | 1,516$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,470$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,452$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…d61ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,396$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed Yes | 3c | 1,357$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked No | 66c | 1,274$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…2b6fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,264$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…58fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,185$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…7210backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 4c | 1,105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…aed1backed Yes | 2c | 1,094$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…4884backed Yes | 2c | 1,054$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 20c | 1,019$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.