TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8979…f003

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15.11
Will Victoria's Secret (VSCO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$85.35
Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19.13
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.07
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$17.38
Will Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$13.12
Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$62.72
Will Dell say "PowerEdge / Power Edge" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$35.3
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$55.82
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+25.7%+$73.58
Will Apple say "Formula 1 / F1" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$12.33
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$6
Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.64
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Jets vs. Oilersbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$51.25
Blackhawks vs. Kingsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$51.52
Blues vs. Senatorsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+138.1%+$69.6
Predators vs. Hurricanesbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Blue Jackets vs. Panthersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Sharks vs. Starsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Blackhawks vs. Kingsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+194.1%+$97.06
Kraken vs. Oilersbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Predators vs. Panthersbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+177.8%+$88.89
Penguins vs. Lightningbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+185.7%+$92.86
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanesbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+185.7%+$44.35
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+25%+$5
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+36.5%+$140.35
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+35%+$97.61
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.45
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.46
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.92
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+41.2%+$8.18
Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.81
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?backed Tesla · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.97
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$47.34
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$618Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$618.15
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,645Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+26.2%+$692.11
Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$51.05
Will Bianca Censori be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$658.45
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$451.9
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$49
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,896Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+58.7%+$2,288.14
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-63.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah State vs. Fresno Statebacked Utah State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+212.5%+$68
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Xi events on October 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+204.9%+$33.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,319Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.9%+$433.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua?backed Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$39.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$28.34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.