AI · resolved market
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7314bfc5ac60bd015c4253b353d346acab9c2f8f833c3016b0cd70fc6ed0db1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SpaceXof SpaceX, Tesla
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Tesla | 9c | 10,522$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.53 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed Tesla | 3c | 5,888$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Tesla | 7c | 5,849$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…ee02backed Tesla | 5c | 2,845$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Tesla | 6c | 1,078$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Tesla | 3c | 950.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Tesla | 5c | 848.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Tesla | 4c | 805.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Tesla | 12c | 691.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Tesla | 6c | 605.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tesla | 2c | 523.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Tesla | 3c | 516.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Tesla | 2c | 506.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ca…aae2backed Tesla | 8c | 487.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Tesla | 8c | 446.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…b57cbacked Tesla | 10c | 385.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Tesla | 10c | 242.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Tesla | 5c | 203$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Tesla | 9c | 199.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…07c6backed Tesla | 9c | 173.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Tesla | 11c | 169.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Tesla | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Tesla | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked Tesla | 9c | 132.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Tesla | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Tesla | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…f13abacked Tesla | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Tesla | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked SpaceX | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.