TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$766,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$782,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $766,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 630 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes68c35,892$24,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,569.321833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No39c25,703$9,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,961.1437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No4c20,931$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.8851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No45c18,723$8,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,427.433351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No19c17,900$3,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,468.6512650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked No22c16,000$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.983834.2%13 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No1c13,568$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.982236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes79c13,526$10,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.078137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x42d4…05d1backed No8c13,333$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes66c12,004$7,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,078.612035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Yes78c11,988$9,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.115541.8%23 W · 32 L-8.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No4c11,550$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41022333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No22c11,152$2,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,485.663135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked No10c10,925$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1283250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4919…067ebacked Yes69c10,408$7,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,180.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+53.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes76c9,425$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.294353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x111b…bad9backed No1c9,033$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.391723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick42cpaid+820.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No10c8,975$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.0536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes77c7,706$5,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.3712654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes78c7,100$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.7712634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No31c7,027$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.853953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No9c6,854$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.619930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7968…d714backed Yes72c6,289$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.14850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes28c5,849$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,207.038143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No14c5,841$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.1513746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No14c5,591$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+117.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No12c4,880$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.923534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No29c4,751$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.6526138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No21c4,733$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.210634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No26c4,693$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.311154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes60c4,619$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No32c4,532$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.8317414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked No28c4,248$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.382250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No69c4,210$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.8135347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c4,138$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.9389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed No20c4,055$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.29837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7909…e8febacked No57c4,010$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,293.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No24c3,820$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.6438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e47…3715backed No16c3,287$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c44…9b54backed No3c3,213$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.06333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a8…ec99backed No21c3,200$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…25adbacked No25c3,167$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed Yes72c3,167$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.12933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8867…4ae5backed No50c3,140$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f4…7a37backed No30c3,128$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…b1a5backed No1c3,111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8620…3718backed Yes69c2,870$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No27c2,830$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.0140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes72c2,810$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No1c2,748$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.973154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No17c2,704$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes79c2,674$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.533100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf933…8a76backed No21c2,600$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b50…e262backed Yes77c2,597$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No22c2,434$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.082339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes66c2,358$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.866549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes71c2,254$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.2316961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf389…e45dbacked No21c2,217$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.68812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed No31c2,111$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No15c2,037$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2318151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No2c2,018$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.683240.6%13 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66017931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0009…1d43backed No25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No25c1,991$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.639955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes74c1,780$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.459930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes78c1,712$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.432326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-52.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad3d…6bf6backed No17c1,675$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No70c1,674$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.64035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2c9…d2a2backed No2c1,635$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…4da4backed No25c1,577$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked No26c1,555$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No23c1,511$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.578250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No23c1,510$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.171741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed Yes71c1,466$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No58c1,400$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No24c1,395$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.223461.8%21 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+62.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No52c1,388$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.4545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8f…4f07backed Yes22c1,377$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No26c1,371$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.87817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed No29c1,362$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…74c8backed No23c1,350$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0f…0522backed Yes73c1,346$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…cb0ebacked Yes19c1,330$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+164.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed No24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes18c1,232$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.635616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x321e…c0f4backed Yes23c1,230$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+120.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes77c1,211$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.912321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes15c1,205$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.9512138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes75c1,196$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.883847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes49c1,165$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.3527643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No10c1,154$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.586650%33 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No18c1,148$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.092611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No35c1,137$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003860.5%23 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+51.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes77c1,134$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.462035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c2a…c8c8backed No29c1,121$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5b…4a6dbacked No30c1,097$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed No28c1,089$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb7…3297backed Yes18c1,088$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+117.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.