TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes18c9,933$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.1825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes23c5,158$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.7112927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes17c5,029$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.124818.8%9 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes38c4,828$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes6c4,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22011530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes45c3,873$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.492544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd586…08e9backed Yes10c3,826$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes14c3,713$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.991827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes22c3,469$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.411526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No35c3,280$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.928660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No76c3,132$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.854553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes16c2,831$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.82065%13 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+94.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes28c2,665$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.539115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes21c2,636$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.213933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x535e…3295backed Yes13c2,580$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed No79c2,449$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes14c2,328$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.033912.8%5 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed Yes28c2,238$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.721330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes12c2,180$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes22c2,000$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4481811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c1,694$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.5426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes9c1,600$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.762462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes19c1,567$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No57c1,548$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.462040%8 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes24c1,389$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.9826238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes12c1,300$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.04944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c1,271$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.7725528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9fd…829ebacked No46c1,264$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes33c1,214$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3982839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No38c1,213$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.082114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes44c1,128$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes7c1,114$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes20c1,082$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.333345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602564%16 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c3…ce50backed No75c999.18$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed No51c980.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.91425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No78c978.16$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.481662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes23c899.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2074156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No75c868.99$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.16647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes41c819.25$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.072040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes19c805.47$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.04757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked No75c791.55$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.55366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes18c781.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.572642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes38c736.97$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.764953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes7c695$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes17c666.62$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.833315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e47…1268backed Yes31c651.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes7c622.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.57380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes25c595.92$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes12c589.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.992611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-85.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed No63c567.96$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.773426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed Yes37c564.73$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.61625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes26c548.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.942015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d5…4e2fbacked Yes23c546.72$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc746…5c8abacked No56c532.66$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d0…ec83backed Yes22c532.11$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+77.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked No40c529.54$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.54977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick37cpaid+119.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcba0…c5cfbacked Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a7…ba0bbacked Yes14c506.14$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed Yes18c506$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851625%4 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10515029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes17c500$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8711647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98b7…4947backed Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb23a…a1a1backed Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes26c473.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8935341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed Yes27c473.47$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes11c471.31$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.72195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes25c459.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.61747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No76c458.28$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.282774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes26c453.78$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.455527.3%15 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No43c452.65$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.014757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes21c449.22$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes7c448$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.064810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes23c445.36$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.451717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes71c433.3$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.42per pick55cpaid-70.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No33c433.18$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.18850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd29…1332backed Yes24c420$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes21c400.01$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.542650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74fb…96cfbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes25c399.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes6c399.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes26c395.43$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.811838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes15c390.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0f…0522backed No78c385.05$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed No78c382.72$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.72580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No52c369.52$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.592556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes7c364.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.662615.4%4 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe08c…cbf6backed Yes70c362.17$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes25c345.12$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43db…9871backed Yes30c340$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6837…a488backed No49c330$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c326.27$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7841736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No71c315.3$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.447356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed No73c314$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.