Movies · resolved market
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4776ab41afc0083cffe7a082ed1ea9bca505d801b40baa47a68208b7c878bb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wickedof Wicked, Avatar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,841,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,752,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,841,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Avatar | 6c | 107,214$5,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,916.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Avatar | 3c | 63,250$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…02dcbacked Avatar | 2c | 32,321$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…181dbacked Avatar | 2c | 31,972$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Avatar | 1c | 31,026$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Avatar | 2c | 30,405$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Avatar | 1c | 30,000$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed Avatar | 1c | 27,430$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…3734backed Avatar | 2c | 27,188$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Avatar | 3c | 23,376$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Avatar | 2c | 17,797$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4feb…63bfbacked Avatar | 4c | 16,488$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…e44fbacked Avatar | 1c | 16,383$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Avatar | 8c | 15,644$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…b9debacked Avatar | 1c | 15,541$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Avatar | 2c | 15,152$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked Avatar | 8c | 14,232$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.67 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…0b12backed Avatar | 4c | 13,791$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…c3c3backed Avatar | 1c | 12,851$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…61a2backed Avatar | 1c | 11,908$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…f7e4backed Avatar | 7c | 11,554$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Avatar | 19c | 10,835$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…f88cbacked Avatar | 0c | 10,036$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…9bbbbacked Avatar | 1c | 10,024$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed Avatar | 7c | 9,999$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…dd1dbacked Avatar | 2c | 9,988$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…130abacked Avatar | 4c | 9,816$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Avatar | 6c | 9,730$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…f8a7backed Avatar | 3c | 9,481$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…13eebacked Avatar | 3c | 9,332$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +963.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed Avatar | 2c | 9,301$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Avatar | 2c | 8,816$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…4ed8backed Avatar | 2c | 8,304$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Avatar | 6c | 8,247$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Avatar | 20c | 7,688$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…ef3ebacked Avatar | 2c | 7,583$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Avatar | 7c | 7,581$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.03 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9333…5045backed Avatar | 3c | 7,530$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…fb93backed Avatar | 3c | 7,503$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Avatar | 1c | 7,378$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…b5e4backed Avatar | 0c | 7,290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…ff18backed Avatar | 6c | 7,223$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…3cbfbacked Avatar | 2c | 7,190$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked Wicked | 78c | 6,979$5,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Avatar | 1c | 6,749$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Avatar | 4c | 6,368$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.56 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0452…7c74backed Avatar | 2c | 6,147$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8819…4cf5backed Avatar | 2c | 6,090$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Avatar | 17c | 5,862$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Avatar | 17c | 5,718$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.95 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa449…c5b0backed Avatar | 4c | 5,710$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Avatar | 0c | 5,605$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…e816backed Avatar | 2c | 5,600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Avatar | 3c | 5,390$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…5798backed Avatar | 6c | 5,085$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…be8dbacked Avatar | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…59f0backed Avatar | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…3f21backed Avatar | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…b85ebacked Avatar | 2c | 4,786$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Avatar | 17c | 4,776$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…4fd8backed Avatar | 14c | 4,748$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Avatar | 1c | 4,689$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Avatar | 2c | 4,649$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…aba5backed Avatar | 5c | 4,619$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Avatar | 2c | 4,583$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Avatar | 4c | 4,537$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…9533backed Avatar | 2c | 4,525$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…b850backed Avatar | 2c | 4,423$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Avatar | 3c | 4,404$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Avatar | 2c | 4,399$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Avatar | 6c | 4,300$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…2d5dbacked Avatar | 2c | 4,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…8839backed Avatar | 1c | 4,171$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Avatar | 10c | 4,000$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.49 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Avatar | 8c | 3,850$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…b3debacked Avatar | 3c | 3,809$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Avatar | 2c | 3,631$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed Avatar | 5c | 3,600$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…18f9backed Avatar | 3c | 3,569$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Avatar | 2c | 3,559$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed Avatar | 4c | 3,500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Avatar | 2c | 3,456$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Avatar | 2c | 3,344$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Avatar | 3c | 3,342$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Avatar | 1c | 3,308$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69af…f5babacked Avatar | 9c | 3,300$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Avatar | 2c | 3,280$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…29a4backed Avatar | 16c | 3,273$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac8…c177backed Avatar | 14c | 3,267$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Avatar | 14c | 3,243$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Avatar | 2c | 3,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Avatar | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7be…f3ecbacked Avatar | 3c | 2,986$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…26c8backed Avatar | 1c | 2,907$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…6a7cbacked Avatar | 0c | 2,890$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…43b7backed Avatar | 1c | 2,727$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Avatar | 13c | 2,689$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…fccdbacked Avatar | 4c | 2,672$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed Avatar | 6c | 2,500$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…a433backed Avatar | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.