TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wickedof Wicked, Avatar
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,841,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,752,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,841,508 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0097…4a1dbacked Avatar6c107,214$5,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,916.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Avatar3c63,250$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.63128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65cc…02dcbacked Avatar2c32,321$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b56…181dbacked Avatar2c31,972$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.94100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Avatar1c31,026$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Avatar2c30,405$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.23714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-64.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Avatar1c30,000$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3727…0b44backed Avatar1c27,430$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba2…3734backed Avatar2c27,188$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Avatar3c23,376$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59970%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Avatar2c17,797$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4feb…63bfbacked Avatar4c16,488$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…e44fbacked Avatar1c16,383$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked Avatar8c15,644$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fec…b9debacked Avatar1c15,541$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Avatar2c15,152$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8316…457bbacked Avatar8c14,232$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.672412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c60…0b12backed Avatar4c13,791$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4e…c3c3backed Avatar1c12,851$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d7…61a2backed Avatar1c11,908$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245e…f7e4backed Avatar7c11,554$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Avatar19c10,835$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.992619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacff…f88cbacked Avatar0c10,036$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa78…9bbbbacked Avatar1c10,024$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe105…9cb3backed Avatar7c9,999$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11d…dd1dbacked Avatar2c9,988$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591f…130abacked Avatar4c9,816$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Avatar6c9,730$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc875…f8a7backed Avatar3c9,481$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+196.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2398…13eebacked Avatar3c9,332$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+963.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f7…2bf6backed Avatar2c9,301$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee9…69a0backed Avatar2c8,816$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…4ed8backed Avatar2c8,304$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Avatar6c8,247$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Avatar20c7,688$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d0…ef3ebacked Avatar2c7,583$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Avatar7c7,581$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.033522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9333…5045backed Avatar3c7,530$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d42…fb93backed Avatar3c7,503$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0a…1936backed Avatar1c7,378$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.62180%0 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7428…b5e4backed Avatar0c7,290$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2b…ff18backed Avatar6c7,223$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.5860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817e…3cbfbacked Avatar2c7,190$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1271330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89d7…3fabbacked Wicked78c6,979$5,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.281464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Avatar1c6,749$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.661455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Avatar4c6,368$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.562321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0452…7c74backed Avatar2c6,147$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8819…4cf5backed Avatar2c6,090$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked Avatar17c5,862$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.85944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Avatar17c5,718$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.956731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa449…c5b0backed Avatar4c5,710$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafbc…e185backed Avatar0c5,605$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.162015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x929c…e816backed Avatar2c5,600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.190%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Avatar3c5,390$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.77303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44e9…5798backed Avatar6c5,085$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0680%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f11…be8dbacked Avatar2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd2…59f0backed Avatar10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+106.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa588…3f21backed Avatar0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee08…b85ebacked Avatar2c4,786$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Avatar17c4,776$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.0170%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b8c…4fd8backed Avatar14c4,748$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.1270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Avatar1c4,689$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.022781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Avatar2c4,649$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.951,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd444…aba5backed Avatar5c4,619$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.971266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4463…f3d0backed Avatar2c4,583$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Avatar4c4,537$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.43140%0 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7743…9533backed Avatar2c4,525$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabff…b850backed Avatar2c4,423$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x107c…3ef7backed Avatar3c4,404$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.281118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Avatar2c4,399$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.682042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed Avatar6c4,300$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…2d5dbacked Avatar2c4,273$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07a6…8839backed Avatar1c4,171$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Avatar10c4,000$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.49618.2%5 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Avatar8c3,850$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.991625%4 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b9…b3debacked Avatar3c3,809$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Avatar2c3,631$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.66674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722c…1011backed Avatar5c3,600$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…18f9backed Avatar3c3,569$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Avatar2c3,559$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.91348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f7…d5e8backed Avatar4c3,500$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+493.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Avatar2c3,456$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.79666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Avatar2c3,344$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.28934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Avatar3c3,342$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.875523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Avatar1c3,308$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69af…f5babacked Avatar9c3,300$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30960%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58bb…1bd7backed Avatar2c3,280$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.72825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Avatar16c3,273$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.681729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac8…c177backed Avatar14c3,267$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Avatar14c3,243$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.361010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-87.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Avatar2c3,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…b1fdbacked Avatar7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7be…f3ecbacked Avatar3c2,986$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x242f…26c8backed Avatar1c2,907$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.89633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ea…6a7cbacked Avatar0c2,890$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325a…43b7backed Avatar1c2,727$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Avatar13c2,689$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36112631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b2e…fccdbacked Avatar4c2,672$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd6…7807backed Avatar6c2,500$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.44616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0e…a433backed Avatar2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.