TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x76f7…2bf6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-86.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.72
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.51
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.74
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$417.35
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.96
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$117.37
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.1
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$471
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.58
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.76
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.43
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.62
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$666.97
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$577Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$577.07
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,185Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$2,184.54
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$732Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$732.47
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+205.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+1,708.2%+$1,708.16
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+210.7%+$120.31
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+224.4%+$226.6
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+30.1%+$13.28
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will December 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$644Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$644.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$34.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.