Us Politics · resolved market
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2865bc483dd523f4a36eb961f7467c8635ee9a13f39748bad55f645ce1f61512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,680,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,152,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,680,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,699 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ae1…bab3backed No | 3c | 1,117,657$29,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,817.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…d31cbacked No | 0c | 318,562$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e81…5fc8backed No | 4c | 312,533$11,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,983 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411f…85c6backed No | 2c | 304,354$4,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,924.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…a95ebacked No | 0c | 227,597$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…334bbacked No | 0c | 227,387$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked No | 3c | 226,153$7,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,736.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…8b5cbacked No | 0c | 219,960$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce9…b780backed No | 4c | 212,937$7,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,973.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…9ef4backed No | 2c | 211,950$4,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,033.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…3497backed No | 2c | 199,760$4,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 3c | 199,611$6,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,207.2 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 1c | 176,949$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 2c | 164,809$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…cd2fbacked No | 3c | 160,668$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…60cabacked No | 2c | 154,585$3,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,634.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd2…3efbbacked No | 1c | 154,566$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…fde2backed No | 0c | 151,728$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc5…214dbacked No | 3c | 150,607$4,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked No | 1c | 146,774$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.24 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 145,706$6,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,068.62 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…1f3cbacked No | 0c | 130,000$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…0e18backed No | 3c | 124,381$3,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…3a90backed No | 0c | 121,420$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…ff18backed No | 1c | 113,984$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ecb4backed No | 0c | 105,713$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4fe6backed No | 12c | 105,599$12,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,399.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…b0e0backed No | 4c | 105,078$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,406.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed No | 0c | 102,479$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 1c | 100,000$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +523.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…7d2fbacked No | 2c | 100,000$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78f…72dbbacked No | 1c | 97,862$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce48…d465backed No | 5c | 86,935$3,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,940.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc3…9e5cbacked No | 1c | 81,826$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…7996backed No | 8c | 80,648$6,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,630.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2f…2ed9backed No | 0c | 80,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b0…5bc8backed No | 1c | 78,000$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6c…12fcbacked No | 0c | 74,392$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…398bbacked No | 1c | 69,725$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…4b56backed No | 2c | 68,917$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…dfcdbacked No | 2c | 68,837$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…3161backed No | 2c | 67,668$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8702…6304backed No | 2c | 67,578$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…75d7backed No | 0c | 65,986$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…48f9backed No | 3c | 65,742$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…94a1backed No | 1c | 64,596$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1497…aeffbacked No | 4c | 63,315$2,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,724.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…4d73backed No | 1c | 62,846$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1a…9edebacked No | 1c | 62,411$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed No | 4c | 61,910$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f3…f766backed No | 0c | 60,859$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…ee97backed No | 2c | 60,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked No | 1c | 59,300$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…99c5backed No | 3c | 57,943$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…3198backed No | 0c | 54,985$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…cbbdbacked No | 2c | 52,278$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…0001backed No | 2c | 50,380$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…9a8bbacked No | 2c | 48,284$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…5b9cbacked No | 8c | 48,208$3,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,970.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…475fbacked No | 2c | 47,752$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bc…ec33backed No | 2c | 46,170$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…ac4dbacked No | 1c | 45,992$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa2…12f8backed No | 3c | 44,421$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…2d9bbacked No | 0c | 43,573$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…71ccbacked No | 1c | 41,382$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…5f2cbacked No | 1c | 40,347$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 40,010$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.44 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…e4c7backed No | 2c | 40,000$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10dd…a797backed No | 6c | 40,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…3516backed No | 3c | 38,259$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…4d2bbacked No | 2c | 37,943$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…eadbbacked No | 1c | 37,514$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No | 2c | 35,680$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.07 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed No | 2c | 35,622$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.27 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd159…dcc6backed No | 3c | 35,348$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 13c | 34,557$4,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,030.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…c6b7backed No | 1c | 33,440$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…2ee4backed No | 2c | 32,708$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…d4e8backed No | 1c | 32,135$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…6224backed No | 1c | 32,083$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df0…f355backed No | 6c | 31,774$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…b942backed No | 2c | 31,497$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…024bbacked No | 4c | 31,451$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c36…747dbacked No | 0c | 31,418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f1…58efbacked No | 0c | 31,185$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed No | 2c | 30,706$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.29 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…92a3backed No | 4c | 30,651$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…7cacbacked No | 1c | 30,397$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed No | 2c | 30,327$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243d…b577backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed No | 2c | 29,570$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…6a46backed Yes | 61c | 29,265$17,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,413.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…5ea4backed No | 39c | 29,265$11,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,413.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…8293backed No | 2c | 28,496$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…ba75backed No | 1c | 27,997$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…2413backed No | 1c | 27,273$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…69b5backed No | 9c | 26,407$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 1c | 25,337$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…6b9abacked No | 1c | 25,245$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…44f8backed No | 2c | 24,518$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.