TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc0da…1f3c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$221
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+58.7%+$11.75
Will the government shutdown end November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+1,861.8%+$372.35
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$340
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.9
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northwestern State Demons vs. California Golden Bearsbacked Northwestern State Demons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$140
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Colorado Buffaloesbacked UTSA Roadrunners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Dallas Christian Crusaders vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islandersbacked Dallas Christian Crusaders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
William Peace Pacers vs. UNCG Spartansbacked William Peace Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Missouri State Bears vs. Xavier Musketeersbacked Missouri State Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
California Golden Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcatsbacked California Golden Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
San Jose State Spartans vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked San Jose State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
North Florida Ospreys vs. Tennessee Volunteersbacked North Florida Ospreys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Southwestern Adventist Knights vs. Abilene Christian Wildcatsbacked Southwestern Adventist Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Columbia Lions vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Columbia Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+314.7%+$125.87
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+183.2%+$73.3
Cavaliers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Nuggets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$262
Pacers vs. Sunsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 5 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Avalanchebacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Panthers vs. Avalanchebacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Blues vs. Predatorsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Canadiens vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 4 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+84.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+453.9%+$90.79
Jets vs. Patriotsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,020
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northern Illinois vs. UMassbacked UMass · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.