TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vallejosof Chikadze, Vallejos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Chikadze23c46,763$10,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,755.435244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8767…237abacked Vallejos77c40,047$30,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,210.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Chikadze22c20,156$4,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,534.4119154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Vallejos77c17,940$13,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,108.527233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Vallejos76c15,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.9816049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Vallejos76c10,000$7,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.3317158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chikadze24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9930039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Chikadze23c8,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9922259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Vallejos74c7,220$5,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.1817752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Vallejos77c7,214$5,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Chikadze24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.992441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Chikadze24c5,630$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.6815641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Chikadze24c5,050$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21235826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Chikadze25c4,892$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.0923537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Vallejos77c4,247$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.9227743%119 W · 158 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Chikadze25c4,156$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.0290553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Vallejos73c3,937$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.586850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Chikadze25c3,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c9…396dbacked Vallejos77c3,885$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.525362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Vallejos77c3,635$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.041181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+47.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chikadze24c3,275$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7865950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Vallejos75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75013650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Chikadze23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69012052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Vallejos80c3,000$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.2153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Chikadze25c2,960$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7404835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Chikadze26c2,800$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7287656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Vallejos75c2,666$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.52040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0da…1f3cbacked Chikadze5c2,417$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8163…1ce8backed Vallejos76c2,118$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.69475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Vallejos78c2,041$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.025959.3%35 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Vallejos76c2,017$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.37233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Vallejos75c2,015$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.597052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Vallejos76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48026743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Vallejos73c1,968$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.5420139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Chikadze27c1,859$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Chikadze23c1,838$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Chikadze25c1,800$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45017055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Chikadze26c1,787$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.663534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Vallejos74c1,622$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.6211140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Chikadze23c1,563$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.155446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Chikadze24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605435.2%19 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Vallejos76c1,402$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vallejos74c1,212$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.1933253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Vallejos77c1,032$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.368851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Chikadze23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2303234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Vallejos75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Vallejos76c996.08$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.066533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Vallejos77c974.03$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.036937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Chikadze31c962.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Chikadze24c912.04$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.892832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e96…5bcdbacked Vallejos77c845.22$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…4399backed Chikadze31c807.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Vallejos75c800$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.535564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x786e…a308backed Vallejos67c759.59$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Chikadze27c744.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Chikadze27c737.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Chikadze23c717.39$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16526140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5344…c194backed Vallejos77c673.33$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.331952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Chikadze24c666$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8436745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Vallejos70c616.43$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6833132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe216…e7b3backed Vallejos75c576.13$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.033855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Chikadze27c567.42$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.628840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Vallejos78c564.1$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.122342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3d3…e8e1backed Vallejos78c527.76$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.113966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed Vallejos66c515.09$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.133268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Chikadze24c510.24$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.689124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Chikadze21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34a2…b10bbacked Chikadze23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Vallejos77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Chikadze27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd913…c45dbacked Chikadze24c494$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Chikadze21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Vallejos76c450$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10839959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Vallejos77c421.14$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.141560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc449…2239backed Chikadze24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe198…0962backed Chikadze26c405.31$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7972…930fbacked Vallejos75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Chikadze23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210843.5%47 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Vallejos74c400$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10436655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb86…1dc5backed Chikadze26c399.75$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.942227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-31.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Vallejos78c397$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.175451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb937…f2c5backed Vallejos74c385.14$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.142766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Vallejos78c371.79$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7913267.4%89 W · 43 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe497…f147backed Vallejos77c311.69$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.691241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Chikadze23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6932545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Chikadze27c299.37$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8312446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Vallejos74c297.1$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.16569.2%45 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Chikadze27c285.38$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.34139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Chikadze24c277.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6217850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Chikadze24c275$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653476.5%26 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Vallejos75c266.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.622850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Vallejos76c263.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.24344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Chikadze24c229.17$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…d3dcbacked Vallejos78c223.88$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3984backed Vallejos75c222.25$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.491747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Chikadze24c212.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5151533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6776…1e7fbacked Vallejos71c211.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Chikadze24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2e…3e5abacked Chikadze27c205.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Vallejos76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4824862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.