TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb937…f2c5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST4557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Lakersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+51.4%+$10.28
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+117.5%+$70.5
Pistons vs. Clippersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$225
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+108.4%+$54.21
Pistons vs. Mavericksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+130.5%+$170.96
Heat vs. Netsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+32.1%+$9.62
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+96.1%+$49
Cavaliers vs. Bullsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Spread: Lakers (-5.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+101.4%+$40.54
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+300%+$75
Spread: Clippers (-7.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+112.8%+$56.38
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+118.6%+$61.69
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+30.6%+$48.21
Grizzlies vs. Pelicansbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+88.7%+$70.96
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+331.3%+$183.33
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+26.6%+$61.98
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+26.1%+$180.03
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT2766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Rafael Fiziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$11.08
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Manel Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+72%+$34.54
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Navajo Stirling · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$12.45
Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$11.08
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Allan Nascimento · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ilia Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+75.4%+$43
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Almeida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$31
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Horiguchi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+31.6%+$12
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$50
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Krylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+143.9%+$59
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+38.9%+$100
UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Vallejos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+35.1%+$100.14
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Amosov (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Amosov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+26.2%+$52.37
UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Asplund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+44.9%+$101.09
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+354.5%+$106.36
UFC 323: Silva vs. Barber (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$62
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Ferreira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+100%+$100
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+41.9%+$100.57
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Dalby · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+284.6%+$142.31
UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Loder (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Loder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Rock vs. Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Rock · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$50
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$105.41
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST1625%4 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NFL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)backed Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$61
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Rams vs. Falconsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+108.3%+$52
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$24.45
Bills vs. Texansbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+54.3%+$202.09
Lions vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Commanders vs. Dolphinsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$80
49ers vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$117.42
Alabama vs. Indianabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Arizona State vs. Dukebacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+66.7%+$100
Spread: Vanderbilt (-5.5)backed Iowa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+85.2%+$23
All 4 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+85.2%+$23
Kings vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Sharks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+75.4%+$43
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.