UFC · resolved market
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357a12230623b9341d17aac4dd36695d614c0096a193441e4c9499815d5b5adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ferreiraof Vettori, Ferreira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $615,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Ferreira | 49c | 70,156$34,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,974.81 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Ferreira | 49c | 68,068$33,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,736.12 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Ferreira | 54c | 64,443$34,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,943.88 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Vettori | 51c | 55,090$28,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,137.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…5225backed Vettori | 51c | 53,964$27,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Vettori | 43c | 27,422$11,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,812.92 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Vettori | 53c | 21,019$11,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,161.97 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Ferreira | 46c | 20,240$9,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,929.34 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ferreira | 47c | 19,501$9,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,317.46 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Vettori | 51c | 17,256$8,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,800.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Ferreira | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,949.99 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Vettori | 53c | 13,000$6,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,939.96 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ferreira | 48c | 11,034$5,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,694.55 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Ferreira | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,204.08 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ferreira | 48c | 9,799$4,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,095.48 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Ferreira | 47c | 9,500$4,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,035 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Vettori | 53c | 9,306$4,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,932.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Vettori | 44c | 8,004$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,501.59 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Vettori | 50c | 7,528$3,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,756.03 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Vettori | 50c | 7,048$3,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,507.74 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Ferreira | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Vettori | 54c | 5,564$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Vettori | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Vettori | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Ferreira | 47c | 4,431$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.51 | 282 | 43.3%122 W · 160 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Vettori | 44c | 4,340$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Vettori | 53c | 4,020$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.77 | 369 | 46.1%170 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…c7eebacked Vettori | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…8540backed Vettori | 50c | 3,783$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ferreira | 62c | 3,152$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.24 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vettori | 50c | 2,898$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.97 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Vettori | 41c | 2,794$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.23 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ferreira | 67c | 2,759$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.48 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ferreira | 63c | 2,586$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Ferreira | 56c | 2,498$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.1 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Vettori | 52c | 2,294$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Ferreira | 63c | 2,156$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.26 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Vettori | 53c | 2,140$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.16 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Ferreira | 50c | 2,086$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.83 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…1ce8backed Ferreira | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Vettori | 35c | 2,000$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.47 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Ferreira | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Vettori | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Vettori | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Vettori | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…9973backed Vettori | 53c | 1,897$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…8695backed Ferreira | 49c | 1,849$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Vettori | 49c | 1,700$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Vettori | 53c | 1,673$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.51 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vettori | 51c | 1,584$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.68 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Vettori | 50c | 1,549$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.5 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Ferreira | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…65f9backed Vettori | 51c | 1,470$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7de6…24c8backed Vettori | 52c | 1,455$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…b7c8backed Ferreira | 49c | 1,450$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Vettori | 51c | 1,397$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.47 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…a278backed Ferreira | 48c | 1,348$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Vettori | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Vettori | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…2b11backed Vettori | 53c | 1,278$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Ferreira | 72c | 1,219$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.84 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Vettori | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Vettori | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…2ccbbacked Vettori | 54c | 1,190$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Vettori | 50c | 1,188$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.03 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Ferreira | 47c | 1,135$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Vettori | 52c | 1,112$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.49 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Vettori | 51c | 1,086$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Ferreira | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Ferreira | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.86 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e88ebacked Ferreira | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Vettori | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…88f3backed Ferreira | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Vettori | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Vettori | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 906 | 53.6%486 W · 420 L | +46.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Vettori | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Vettori | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed Ferreira | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Vettori | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…4ebfbacked Ferreira | 47c | 943.4$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Ferreira | 48c | 940.25$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.25 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Vettori | 3c | 923.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Vettori | 39c | 907.58$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.77 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Vettori | 52c | 861.54$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Vettori | 53c | 851.14$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Vettori | 53c | 840$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.2 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Ferreira | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Ferreira | 47c | 777$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.81 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Vettori | 52c | 776.95$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.02 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Vettori | 23c | 768.83$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Vettori | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…7805backed Vettori | 47c | 700$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed Ferreira | 53c | 699.98$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Vettori | 51c | 682.5$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ferreira | 56c | 653.99$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.57 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Ferreira | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Vettori | 46c | 600.11$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.61 | 541 | 56.7%307 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…8334backed Ferreira | 67c | 600$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Vettori | 49c | 599.53$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.17 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Vettori | 54c | 588.89$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Brunno Ferreira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.