UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db3e14f4ddac70cc8e3415ff23846e348187beb09887f5793da65e29dd85aa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 48c | 3,002$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,247$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.03 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 54c | 218.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047c…69b6backed No | 48c | 203$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3a…f8e9backed No | 48c | 198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…f3bcbacked Yes | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…4374backed Yes | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa931…4366backed No | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…acfdbacked Yes | 52c | 187$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…0831backed Yes | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 46c | 154.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…d15ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 47c | 34.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a6…43a9backed Yes | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed No | 58c | 26.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Ferreira won
- Will Brunno Ferreira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.