TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Magic, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,040,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,058,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,040,113 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33f6…e0debacked Magic33c279,945$93,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,512.993033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e7…3182backed Magic0c177,380$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.386864.7%44 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors66c114,906$75,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,067.8887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Warriors67c111,698$74,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,860.547848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Magic33c100,000$33,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,999.8413248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Magic22c98,076$21,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,610.6137539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Magic34c97,849$33,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,574.0851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Magic38c97,433$37,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,0657745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Warriors59c75,283$44,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,871.948333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Warriors67c70,584$47,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,292.6851350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors67c64,000$42,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,1201,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors67c60,442$40,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,197.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic32c59,843$19,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,032.691,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Warriors66c57,113$37,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,557.9620055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors66c43,225$28,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,640.895,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic36c35,072$12,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,702.631,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Warriors67c30,000$20,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec1…28bdbacked Magic34c29,668$10,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2223636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Magic35c28,963$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Warriors66c28,200$18,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,492.4437557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Magic1c26,588$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.8864517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Warriors79c24,150$19,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,071.534261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Magic4c22,680$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.1713442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors64c20,670$13,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,343.659,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors64c20,667$13,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,395.393,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Warriors63c20,000$12,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,391.461,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors67c19,503$12,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,532.762,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Magic40c17,535$6,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,968.0327917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic39c17,228$6,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.438,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Magic34c15,851$5,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,389.2820454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Magic34c12,666$4,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,306.57149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Magic45c12,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4002759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Warriors55c11,885$6,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,33548046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Magic30c10,888$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,308.676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors66c10,821$7,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.32,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors66c10,700$7,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6384,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic10c10,315$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.091,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Warriors66c10,039$6,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,413.343063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Warriors67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30027424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Magic33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30035235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6603…959ebacked Magic34c9,897$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,364.742055%11 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Warriors64c9,892$6,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.081,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0efb…6cccbacked Magic33c9,511$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors64c9,470$6,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,447.724,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Magic19c8,709$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.571,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors66c8,685$5,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.81,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Warriors67c8,587$5,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.1744654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5a…8f58backed Magic41c8,532$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.256241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Warriors61c8,341$5,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,252.7341954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Warriors65c8,337$5,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.4355346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors68c8,118$5,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.983,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Magic34c8,001$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.3414945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Warriors65c8,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80014055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Warriors67c7,463$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.698361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Warriors78c7,370$5,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.1722051.8%114 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Magic37c7,362$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.5911654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Magic31c7,000$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.011,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Magic34c6,807$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.632,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Warriors65c6,662$4,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,354.912651.6%65 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9470…7790backed Magic34c6,368$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1651612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-79.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5caa…953fbacked Magic34c6,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.991968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+55.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Warriors60c5,944$3,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.7829037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Warriors66c5,936$3,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.3230947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Magic34c5,882$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00035438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Warriors65c5,690$3,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.4734456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Warriors66c5,593$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.3672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Magic37c5,372$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99912541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Warriors67c5,227$3,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.0136950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Magic14c5,189$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.949424.5%23 W · 71 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic1c5,124$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.728820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Magic20c5,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98047535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Magic16c5,000$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.4942640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Magic37c4,812$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80022449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Warriors65c4,606$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.3126544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25cf…8812backed Magic34c4,194$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Warriors62c4,152$2,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.6747043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Magic34c4,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.9978445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf03e…9771backed Warriors63c3,541$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Magic14c3,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…9758backed Magic37c3,441$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed Magic48c3,333$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.313548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Magic5c3,185$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040536.5%148 W · 257 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Warriors61c3,117$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.148846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4087…1665backed Magic35c3,115$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.323737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Magic33c3,100$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01661835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Magic33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Magic28c3,005$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4850838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Magic28c3,003$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.8513625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15c…10d3backed Warriors66c3,000$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+55.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Warriors67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.0717250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Warriors72c2,957$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.8827848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Warriors72c2,903$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.6317441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf77e…b594backed Magic1c2,900$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e58…f73bbacked Warriors65c2,860$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0015740.4%23 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Magic43c2,753$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.287240.3%29 W · 43 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Warriors64c2,701$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.2144459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Warriors58c2,600$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.996448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac53…821fbacked Magic25c2,599$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.82454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Warriors61c2,550$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.51,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d8c…3268backed Warriors67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.021070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+69.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.