NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e227618cd81218f0934aa191694ee00b7b42bc04498312c995bb1a694740744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 53c | 2,584$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.46 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,395$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…4666backed Under | 51c | 1,425$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,062$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 53c | 600$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.69 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 330.75$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.76 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 49c | 308.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Under | 53c | 289.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 49c | 254$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 223$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 188$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 54c | 181.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 45c | 177$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 163.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 148.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493f…c3b2backed Under | 52c | 134$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 52c | 118$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 116.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 50c | 114.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…adb7backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 73c | 92.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…c541backed Over | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 52c | 76.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…fc1abacked Over | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cd…640cbacked Over | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 45c | 61.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 52c | 49.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 47c | 33.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…382bbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 45c | 22.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Magic vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.