NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e7cb3c74a93fb94c31f1da1ffba6c137076d7043440e432a501b34b46688bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Warriors | 48c | 4,094$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.75 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 47c | 4,048$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Magic | 52c | 4,038$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.08 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Magic | 53c | 3,585$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.05 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 58c | 2,085$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Magic | 38c | 1,400$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Warriors | 48c | 1,360$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.2 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Magic | 70c | 1,102$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.88 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Magic | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 48c | 782.36$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Magic | 52c | 673$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.96 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 45c | 611.6$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Magic | 52c | 540$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Magic | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Magic | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 78c | 433.78$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Magic | 25c | 334.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Warriors | 47c | 329.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.79 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Magic | 52c | 274.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Magic | 61c | 257.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Magic | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Magic | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Warriors | 15c | 102.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Magic | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Magic | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Magic | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…c123backed Magic | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Magic | 53c | 52.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Warriors | 40c | 50.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Warriors | 47c | 49.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…9881backed Magic | 61c | 47.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Magic | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Warriors | 48c | 39.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Magic | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 47c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Warriors | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Magic | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…44b3backed Warriors | 48c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Magic | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Magic vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.