NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77210c0b0584c74cde9eac7f5fd273261f5a7c6b154ab6bc776d0aa63b26b4c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 20,597$9,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,907.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…5a5ebacked Over | 52c | 8,679$4,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,521.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Over | 54c | 6,986$3,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,772.44 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…26f4backed Over | 53c | 4,354$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 1,039$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.59 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…5bcebacked Over | 53c | 986.34$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Over | 49c | 640$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.6 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 213.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 49c | 211$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 206$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 54c | 160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 109.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Over | 50c | 108.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 51.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Magic won
- Magic vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Magic vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.