TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc62a…c2c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: College Football, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST3063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$7,050Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+112.8%+$7,950
Nuggets vs. Heatbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$7,950Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$7,950
Warriors vs. Netsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13,200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+51.5%+$6,800
Celtics vs. Trail Blazersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$6,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$6,300
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$21,900
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+75.4%+$519.58
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$8,160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$8,160
Knicks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+42.9%+$6,000
Pelicans vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15,600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+28.2%+$4,400
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$6,626Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+51.5%+$3,413.34
Trail Blazers vs. Kingsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+66.7%+$12,000
Magic vs. Jazzbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$19,710Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+37%+$7,290
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$18,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+25%+$4,600
Pacers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$6,720Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+78.6%+$5,280
Spurs vs. Hawksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$5,310Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+69.5%+$3,690
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15,620
Pistons vs. Mavericksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20,700
Kings vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$17,760Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+35.1%+$6,240
Raptors vs. Bucksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$7,440Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+61.3%+$4,560
Heat vs. Netsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20,010Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+44.9%+$8,990
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,040Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+78.6%+$3,960
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$8,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$8,040
Kings vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$29,591Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+25%+$7,397.8
Bucks vs. Netsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$8,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$8,320
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,550Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+40.8%+$1,450
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12,730Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+49.3%+$6,269.99
Penguins vs. Blackhawksbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8,600
Kraken vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$9,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$9,300
Canucks vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$7,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$7,440
Maple Leafs vs. Predatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$32.67
Hurricanes vs. Lightningbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$3,959.96
Utah vs. Bruinsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10,560Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$10,560
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$7,680Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$4,320
Bruins vs. Wildbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$6,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$6,750
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,780Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+58.7%+$2,220
Golden Knights vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15,120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+78.6%+$11,880
Sharks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,348Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$2,347.72
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$5,640
Ducks vs. Islandersbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$5,640
Senators vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$5,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$5,400
Blues vs. Canadiensbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$5,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+122.2%+$6,600
Blue Jackets vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14,076Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+61.3%+$8,627.05
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$6,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$6,900
Vikings vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10,880
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$7,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$7,100
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$8,100
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+118.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+174%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Duke vs. Virginiabacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,182Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+170.3%+$3,715.41
Ohio State vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$6,840Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+177.8%+$12,159.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35,420Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$35,419.93
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Pantoja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$6,030
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Kyrgios · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+25%+$3,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$68.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,550
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$171.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$260.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.