Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811e5e23f253001d40d5065a938d962ccd500d3b7601af04f57e61d2bdc54d62

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,203,030
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,141,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203,030 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe1dc…ff6cbacked Yes	6c	96,255$5,771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,770.74	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.15per pick	31cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf5…a7fbbacked Yes	0c	95,566$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.57	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	9c	58,743$5,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,021.99	167	40.7%68 W · 99 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	7c	46,825$3,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,127.17	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes	9c	36,241$3,261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,260.85	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes	3c	36,000$1,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,235	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d5…10a6backed Yes	2c	30,775$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.37	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ee…eb78backed Yes	4c	27,077$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,181	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed Yes	50c	25,000$12,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,499.99	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes	3c	20,556$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.93	134	22.4%30 W · 104 L	+12.7wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+175.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes	1c	18,936$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes	4c	18,024$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.1	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	7c	13,686$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.26	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-36%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb24e…c0bebacked No	49c	12,000$5,866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,133.75	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dad…0830backed Yes	6c	10,010$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed Yes	9c	9,160$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$867	61	27.9%17 W · 44 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed No	77c	8,301$6,358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,942.29	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes	26c	7,993$2,062 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,062.09	85	21.2%18 W · 67 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes	47c	7,853$3,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,679.62	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	21cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	1c	7,708$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	237	7.2%17 W · 220 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…a4b9backed Yes	13c	6,807$866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	6,680$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.57	357	12.9%46 W · 311 L	-29.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes	54c	6,332$3,411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,411.39	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No	50c	6,122$3,056 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,066	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+7.9wins	+0.16per pick	42cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed No	50c	5,992$2,994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,997.58	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes	9c	5,862$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.75	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a27…731cbacked Yes	11c	5,200$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.56	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8c…9909backed Yes	2c	5,123$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked Yes	6c	5,057$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.54	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+6.1wins	+0.17per pick	19cpaid	+72.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes	1c	4,910$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	100	47%47 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc14b…cd9fbacked Yes	22c	4,543$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8886…3913backed Yes	14c	4,441$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Yes	6c	4,100$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes	40c	4,000$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No	45c	3,900$1,773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,127.58	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes	13c	3,008$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.89	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed No	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+3.8wins	+0.20per pick	49cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7b3…be6cbacked No	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No	68c	2,986$2,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$970.19	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ee…5cf0backed No	73c	2,851$2,073 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$777.82	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes	28c	2,771$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.72	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b06…d33fbacked No	50c	2,652$1,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,326.1	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2b…8606backed Yes	7c	2,650$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…eca4backed Yes	9c	2,638$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.56	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No	49c	2,559$1,246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,313.04	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c36…c1efbacked Yes	14c	2,500$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.5	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	44cpaid	+28%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,320$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.73	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No	69c	2,234$1,541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.13	153	62.7%96 W · 57 L	+22.4wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes	4c	2,135$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.98	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes	15c	2,106$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.92	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed No	70c	2,012$1,408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$603.52	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No	50c	2,000$998 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,001.72	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+9.0wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed Yes	22c	2,000$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.27	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc9…61fbbacked Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68d7…1c0bbacked Yes	5c	1,982$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55c5…a686backed Yes	46c	1,955$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.29	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	12c	1,945$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.77	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05cb…4243backed No	53c	1,895$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$895	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes	54c	1,702$917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$916.74	94	22.3%21 W · 73 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf4…ee82backed Yes	16c	1,626$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.8	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc771…b18fbacked Yes	53c	1,618$857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.29	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacf5…9385backed Yes	14c	1,500$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51a1…a78fbacked No	50c	1,496$748 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	72c	1,455$1,047 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$407.91	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b25…73b4backed Yes	45c	1,400$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No	75c	1,395$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.24	51	66.7%34 W · 17 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,379$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.57	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…772dbacked No	50c	1,360$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$680	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	9c	1,358$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.88	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No	69c	1,348$931 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.51	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a1c…970abacked No	45c	1,342$604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.14	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	20c	1,339$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.3	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6f…e727backed Yes	3c	1,320$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes	13c	1,300$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	40c	1,250$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.96	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,205$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.52	254	1.6%4 W · 250 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	1,200$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.9	60	1.7%1 W · 59 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f02…f844backed No	70c	1,176$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb778…6492backed Yes	10c	1,100$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c3…5373backed No	48c	1,100$529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes	55c	1,090$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.54	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	56c	1,070$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.9wins	-0.23per pick	47cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9479…87ffbacked Yes	1c	1,063$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1534…f40fbacked No	69c	1,053$722 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.29	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	40cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No	74c	1,000$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c95…30cbbacked No	45c	1,000$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes	16c	1,000$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	159	41.5%66 W · 93 L	+9.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	+12.1wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+164.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	934.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.43	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x118c…74c5backed Yes	10c	925.92$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes	12c	900$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.71	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc43d…8f2bbacked No	50c	856.02$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.02	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	15c	836.75$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.87	254	22%56 W · 198 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	47c	821.18$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.53	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed No	48c	811$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.72	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	800$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.9	119	0.8%1 W · 118 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes	51c	752$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.52	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9da…7979backed Yes	50c	702.29$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?this page
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes won
Lighter FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event