Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x920cce643cf0d0f247f3f44f618121d9c9f9a0005320b326db93ca09c7df08cf

Rebuilt 27 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,490,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,311,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,490,950 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a67…df6fbacked No	4c	110,219$4,838 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,838.11	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No	4c	103,693$4,655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,654.92	94	22.3%21 W · 73 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d36…556dbacked No	1c	85,224$1,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,051	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ee…eb78backed No	1c	33,493$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No	3c	30,810$997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996.79	147	32%47 W · 100 L	+12.7wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+44%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	70c	29,500$20,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,850	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked No	6c	29,211$1,753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,752.68	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1c…970abacked No	5c	29,020$1,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,451.01	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…46aebacked No	12c	23,848$2,855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,855.15	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524b…49acbacked No	16c	22,517$3,664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,664.44	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+73.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed No	7c	21,282$1,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,467.14	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0188…0bc9backed No	1c	20,997$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No	11c	19,959$2,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,110.93	238	41.2%98 W · 140 L	+25.1wins	+0.11per pick	31cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	7c	16,882$1,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,130.35	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c2…29ebbacked No	9c	16,756$1,539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,538.9	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	19cpaid	+132.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec0…976bbacked No	7c	15,600$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked No	7c	14,716$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030.14	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e45…0d96backed No	7c	14,442$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1f…c395backed No	7c	14,010$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No	7c	13,119$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+7.9wins	+0.16per pick	42cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed No	4c	12,500$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No	1c	12,485$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.49	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…be6cbacked No	8c	11,462$892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.81	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…19d0backed No	1c	11,021$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.95	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+173.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No	1c	10,779$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.03	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4106…ddcdbacked No	4c	10,702$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x776b…7251backed No	10c	10,000$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No	1c	9,730$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.73	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd327…94a4backed No	9c	9,630$854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.38	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No	3c	9,403$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.5	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	25cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No	1c	8,204$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.83	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8886…3913backed No	2c	8,024$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No	1c	8,003$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.14	237	7.2%17 W · 220 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4485…037bbacked No	5c	7,826$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffef…d7dbbacked No	6c	7,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No	0c	6,868$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed No	1c	6,438$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.86	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No	10c	5,553$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.71	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9a…467bbacked No	6c	5,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed No	14c	5,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca38…8c8bbacked No	1c	4,807$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.94	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e2…59c2backed No	6c	4,793$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.06	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-66%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked No	6c	4,571$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.27	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No	10c	4,548$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	3c	4,472$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.68	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed No	1c	3,921$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No	0c	3,902$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	2c	3,897$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.15	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No	3c	3,700$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.8	60	1.7%1 W · 59 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b9…d5babacked No	8c	3,464$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65a0…ebecbacked No	6c	3,420$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.4	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9349…8d0fbacked No	18c	3,356$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.84	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed No	2c	3,339$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.79	100	47%47 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f9…b6f4backed No	9c	3,050$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.99	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8da…d267backed No	8c	3,018$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0ee…a2b3backed No	6c	3,008$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No	1c	3,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1549…46f6backed No	18c	3,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	+6.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	15c	2,978$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.11	357	12.9%46 W · 311 L	-29.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6818…bbc7backed No	11c	2,962$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.18	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1bd9…c7f1backed No	7c	2,960$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.6	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed No	8c	2,870$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed No	1c	2,856$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.97	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No	2c	2,593$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No	6c	2,523$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.08	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c3…5373backed No	6c	2,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	4c	2,494$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.28	254	1.6%4 W · 250 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No	1c	2,446$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…26adbacked No	9c	2,274$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae4…273ebacked No	5c	2,010$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.22per pick	32cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No	3c	2,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553a…177fbacked No	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-30%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56d5…10a6backed No	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No	2c	2,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c95…30cbbacked No	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked No	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+6.1wins	+0.17per pick	19cpaid	+72.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204b…6a5cbacked No	2c	2,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc617…11cabacked No	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4f…7f5bbacked Yes	77c	2,000$1,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed No	1c	1,680$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No	5c	1,663$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.18	112	2.7%3 W · 109 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb076…4df8backed No	18c	1,662$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd7ae…df47backed No	6c	1,567$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…fe9cbacked No	9c	1,560$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…5596backed No	6c	1,500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No	4c	1,471$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.09	119	0.8%1 W · 118 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf485…4dbabacked No	5c	1,462$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x674a…d54fbacked No	9c	1,402$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.4	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4951…42e3backed No	8c	1,400$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d27…5350backed No	11c	1,382$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+3.8wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No	2c	1,338$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No	1c	1,272$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	134	22.4%30 W · 104 L	+12.7wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+175.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeabd…3a01backed No	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No	1c	1,200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+98.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea4…8895backed No	10c	1,148$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.41	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No	9c	1,145$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.6	91	42.9%39 W · 52 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4930…82abbacked No	4c	1,062$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.76	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc93c…3c93backed No	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4af4…f744backed No	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed No	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event