Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7fdfc91f5395579004afa139466b9396b2482d550ebf9ec6d25c054820820c3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,995,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,659,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,995,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x51fd…4272backed No	1c	163,449$1,518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,518.33	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa66c…f291backed No	1c	111,965$962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$962.25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e95…1218backed No	1c	110,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No	1c	81,126$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870	94	22.3%21 W · 73 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No	0c	75,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x940c…b266backed No	2c	57,876$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.03	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf5…a7fbbacked No	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524b…49acbacked No	2c	50,000$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892.98	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+73.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc001…4b7cbacked No	0c	49,830$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.83	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae4…273ebacked No	1c	42,314$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.2	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.22per pick	32cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71fd…0367backed No	2c	35,052$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.09	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d96…7d74backed No	0c	33,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8071…8a24backed No	1c	32,327$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff2…2be4backed No	1c	28,750$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.5	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffef…d7dbbacked No	1c	26,350$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.85	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed No	1c	25,101$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.01	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe689…cfd9backed No	1c	24,860$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.7	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No	1c	24,117$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.12	238	41.2%98 W · 140 L	+25.1wins	+0.11per pick	31cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed No	0c	20,100$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.3	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e2…59c2backed No	1c	19,480$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.86	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-66%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed No	2c	19,087$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.62	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6786…0d36backed No	0c	17,746$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b04…ff84backed No	0c	17,667$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de0…78dabacked No	2c	17,244$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ae…df47backed No	2c	17,135$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…19d0backed No	0c	15,640$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.28	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+173.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bc…110bbacked No	1c	14,517$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed No	0c	14,219$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.64	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…26adbacked No	1c	13,943$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x209b…cc9abacked No	1c	13,042$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…68debacked No	0c	12,455$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed No	2c	11,394$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed No	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3f…da5bbacked No	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea46…f2babacked No	0c	9,993$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed No	1c	9,091$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd036…ff2ebacked No	0c	7,957$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf43…9edebacked No	0c	7,708$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…fe9cbacked No	1c	6,808$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No	1c	6,763$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.32	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c5…252cbacked No	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc317…0da6backed No	0c	5,334$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	5,136$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.82	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…41b5backed No	0c	5,100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	9cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed No	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de4…8a69backed No	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed No	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	7.3%4 W · 51 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed No	1c	4,732$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	100	47%47 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f2…a879backed No	1c	4,545$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked No	3c	4,495$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf485…4dbabacked No	1c	4,347$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No	1c	4,238$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e17…a3a5backed No	0c	3,983$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…be6cbacked No	3c	3,916$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.66	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	1c	3,731$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.19	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc239…64a6backed No	1c	3,500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No	2c	3,241$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e33…cef8backed No	1c	3,187$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.4	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc462…d348backed No	2c	3,177$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad3…a89fbacked No	0c	3,095$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda2b…c006backed No	2c	3,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No	4c	2,800$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491b…af47backed No	1c	2,800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79d…5feebacked No	1c	2,667$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3695…6052backed No	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x731d…c73fbacked No	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed No	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+307.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44ff…8b60backed No	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8a…e78bbacked No	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c3…4ba8backed No	1c	2,400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdc…2d9bbacked No	1c	2,400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No	2c	2,210$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x275b…b7f2backed No	1c	2,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	1c	2,170$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	254	1.6%4 W · 250 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No	1c	2,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	60	1.7%1 W · 59 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed No	2c	2,022$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.45	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed No	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…11f2backed No	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a7f…37c4backed No	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea4…8895backed No	1c	1,850$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83eb…8a3abacked No	1c	1,818$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No	1c	1,700$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c82…75c1backed No	1c	1,670$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked No	1c	1,580$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…5cd3backed No	1c	1,531$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed No	1c	1,523$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed No	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c3…5373backed No	2c	1,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe73e…5a41backed No	1c	1,411$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x674a…d54fbacked No	2c	1,410$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d0…de23backed No	3c	1,331$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.29	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e7…132bbacked No	1c	1,253$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No	1c	1,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	112	2.7%3 W · 109 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbd…a3a1backed No	2c	1,196$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe410…f245backed No	4c	1,150$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7e…e65fbacked No	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.8wins	+0.20per pick	45cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed12…c018backed No	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12d0…0a9fbacked No	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb256…3f94backed No	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes won
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
Lighter FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event