Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43f92f0e1f69d57c6c1fceb75189ee1f7fe18be295a89d363221c2e715ab71ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $295,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 2c | 18,742$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.45 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 11,161$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…4bd2backed Yes | 2c | 9,458$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…19d0backed Yes | 0c | 6,895$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,577$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…5ff0backed Yes | 5c | 2,439$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 1,695$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,335$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…3194backed Yes | 4c | 1,256$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cde2backed Yes | 4c | 1,183$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 816.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 4c | 654.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…1df4backed Yes | 6c | 340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 7c | 245.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 12c | 205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…1793backed Yes | 10c | 154.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch?this page
- Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.