TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa66c…f291

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: La Liga, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 52 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-75.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$146.97
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$7,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,200
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.31
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$2,342.54
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$962Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$962.25
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,829Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+28.2%+$1,362.02
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$395.16
VOOI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$169.28
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24,357Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$24,356.96
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 11 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15.68
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be clear/water?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20.58
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be red/pink?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$35.9
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Pointsbacked Odd · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$723Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$722.69
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$6,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$6,400
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$121.73
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,519Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$1,518.79
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$147.66
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$990Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$989.87
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$4,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,450
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$48,270.38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34,099.9
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$199.8
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$407.23
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$185.07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$52,252Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$52,252.06
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+48.4%+$32.61
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,217Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+48.1%+$1,066.17
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11,100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$3,899.93
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16,300.43
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$6,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+66.7%+$4,000
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivalsbacked Oh My God · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$205.2
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$525
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivalsbacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18,867Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$18,866.75
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivalsbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,491Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$2,491.47
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+72.4%+$252.27
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,732Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$2,033.1
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$933Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$933.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$344.88
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,412Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,412.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$6,551Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$4,089.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13,353Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5,453.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed ETH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,719Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$1,719.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.