Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c4b545b189b25c868f50f36c9efc21c0ca5eabcf6c733058dac137f3509f6c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,056,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $923,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,056,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 481 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd300…30adbacked Yes | 6c | 23,906$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…82e6backed Yes | 3c | 20,615$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 32c | 16,627$5,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,325.43 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 16,398$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 49c | 14,008$6,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,836.24 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…f4b3backed No | 53c | 13,080$6,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,091.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…935abacked No | 65c | 12,903$8,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.21 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…3108backed Yes | 3c | 12,730$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…770dbacked Yes | 5c | 12,362$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…22febacked No | 61c | 11,475$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,475.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +361.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked Yes | 18c | 11,253$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 11,229$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 8c | 9,325$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.75 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 8,818$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.76 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 53c | 8,646$4,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,043.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…6916backed Yes | 3c | 8,305$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae7…c827backed Yes | 33c | 7,353$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 5c | 7,335$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.02 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 14c | 6,622$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.5 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 1c | 6,488$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…e7abbacked Yes | 51c | 6,409$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…fe44backed Yes | 17c | 6,323$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…ca77backed Yes | 26c | 6,025$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed Yes | 36c | 5,945$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.71 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…c9f5backed Yes | 8c | 5,924$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 3c | 5,806$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 14c | 5,334$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.66 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed No | 80c | 5,011$4,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.56 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…6c40backed Yes | 10c | 4,978$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0c…fb96backed No | 48c | 4,500$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b2…4646backed Yes | 5c | 4,465$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…413ebacked Yes | 55c | 4,465$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…df66backed Yes | 5c | 4,402$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…3beabacked No | 59c | 4,240$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e3…07e8backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…01f0backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 4c | 3,885$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…c018backed Yes | 2c | 3,503$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,477$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Yes | 9c | 3,230$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 3c | 3,157$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…8e15backed No | 52c | 3,124$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…74adbacked No | 78c | 3,041$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.47 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…0841backed No | 47c | 3,000$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.93 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…fbbfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 3c | 2,998$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…ae63backed Yes | 47c | 2,981$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…7816backed Yes | 13c | 2,979$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…2af0backed Yes | 6c | 2,968$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…8b68backed Yes | 2c | 2,883$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked Yes | 3c | 2,868$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…5004backed Yes | 5c | 2,791$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe767…f2c8backed Yes | 50c | 2,726$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…9e29backed No | 77c | 2,598$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…d00ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,561$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7935…ddb0backed Yes | 45c | 2,503$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…578abacked No | 38c | 2,436$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…761fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,434$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…46aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,367$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…f2febacked No | 57c | 2,344$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa435…daf0backed Yes | 37c | 2,302$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…5ee1backed Yes | 68c | 2,295$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…ed46backed No | 79c | 2,260$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 7c | 2,200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2f…09fcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,190$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,175$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…b2eabacked Yes | 36c | 2,168$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c68…2ddcbacked Yes | 47c | 2,135$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes | 50c | 2,012$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…cde3backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…b0f2backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,991$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…d4fbbacked No | 56c | 1,985$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…ac2cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,950$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b78…2cd6backed Yes | 10c | 1,885$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…e166backed No | 56c | 1,880$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…a0b4backed Yes | 55c | 1,857$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d028backed Yes | 43c | 1,843$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…7b4cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,779$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…947abacked Yes | 39c | 1,772$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 5c | 1,726$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…77d6backed Yes | 39c | 1,699$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.81 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…b161backed Yes | 23c | 1,684$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…18cfbacked Yes | 60c | 1,666$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…dc5ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,635$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,606$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed No | 30c | 1,560$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.33 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…cb46backed Yes | 5c | 1,526$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…644abacked Yes | 6c | 1,503$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…c09fbacked No | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? this page
- Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? No won
- Will Opensea launch a token by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.