Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9dbaf985feef50515f4c3e53ed6470c19eb86f933e53829a5af37cec9d8745b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ca5…9f1fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…bce1backed Yes | 3c | 3,969$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…5eabbacked Yes | 10c | 3,791$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,406$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…4bfabacked Yes | 1c | 2,185$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d5…5232backed Yes | 3c | 1,910$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…8a0ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,888$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,855$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,720$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa8…8975backed Yes | 15c | 1,672$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,635$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…8727backed Yes | 8c | 1,253$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…26b7backed Yes | 18c | 1,096$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…6a86backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…7b03backed Yes | 19c | 723.62$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 2c | 608.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb768…3ea1backed Yes | 8c | 595.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 80c | 563.26$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…ce25backed Yes | 7c | 553.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 10c | 500.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 414.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…1299backed Yes | 5c | 404.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfc…83ebbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…3e22backed Yes | 11c | 374.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…4325backed Yes | 36c | 371.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 368.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36e…ad3abacked Yes | 21c | 351.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed No | 80c | 334.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 80c | 263.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…a456backed Yes | 39c | 256.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…fa17backed Yes | 33c | 248.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 73c | 247.19$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 24c | 232.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed No | 72c | 217.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef8b…7627backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…f4e3backed Yes | 10c | 194.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 8c | 193.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…8da6backed Yes | 14c | 178.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed No | 59c | 168.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…aac5backed Yes | 19c | 166.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…b3f5backed Yes | 11c | 157.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…6ac9backed Yes | 7c | 156.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 155.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 66c | 151.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…04f7backed Yes | 17c | 147.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…62dbbacked Yes | 13c | 141.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…a452backed Yes | 8c | 139.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…eb3cbacked Yes | 16c | 123.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 29c | 117.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…224fbacked Yes | 43c | 115.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…19dabacked Yes | 22c | 115.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd86…2368backed Yes | 18c | 111.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3c95backed Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…3aa8backed Yes | 14c | 108.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Yes | 40c | 100.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…5eecbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 68c | 93.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…4dc1backed Yes | 22c | 92.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…2b6dbacked Yes | 12c | 92.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 90.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…86c4backed No | 72c | 85.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…9430backed Yes | 36c | 80.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 69c | 79.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…eb83backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8576…1021backed Yes | 16c | 70.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…78e1backed Yes | 29c | 69.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed No | 72c | 69.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed No | 77c | 66.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…55b0backed No | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…a7b2backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd46…58a6backed No | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 44c | 45.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2667backed Yes | 25c | 45.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 36c | 42.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…b6febacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…8632backed Yes | 34c | 35.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…d685backed No | 77c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? this page
- Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? No won
- Will Opensea launch a token by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.