Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x705371444684d676041d1010a94cae3a657340fa4809b4307de3c173a35e0957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,229,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,913,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,229,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,693 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Yes | 0c | 3,999,996$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 1,080,059$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.74 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 775,887$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.77 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 647,408$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.63 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 638,400$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…bbfbbacked Yes | 1c | 436,349$3,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 6c | 365,458$20,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,499.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 7c | 356,991$25,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,788.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 12c | 314,540$39,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,243.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…7668backed Yes | 0c | 229,497$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 1c | 216,016$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.62 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…fdbdbacked Yes | 1c | 205,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 13c | 191,677$23,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,961.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 2c | 178,074$3,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 0c | 174,027$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 157,143$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.86 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 149,525$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.57 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 147,506$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…c2a0backed Yes | 8c | 144,529$11,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,975.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…ccc5backed Yes | 0c | 135,375$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 131,501$13,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,393.3 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 124,999$4,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,262.06 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes | 0c | 124,685$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa770…2e07backed Yes | 2c | 121,549$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 11c | 121,305$13,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,708.3 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…e94cbacked Yes | 0c | 119,716$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…adc5backed Yes | 4c | 117,660$4,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,603.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked Yes | 0c | 115,000$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 0c | 114,415$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 0c | 112,353$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 14c | 110,642$14,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,938.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…bb24backed Yes | 1c | 105,960$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 2c | 101,714$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 12c | 101,591$12,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,686.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…183cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 99,716$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.43 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…c6afbacked Yes | 0c | 94,155$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 0c | 93,410$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3604…bd45backed Yes | 0c | 93,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…b1debacked Yes | 0c | 87,940$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 18c | 87,840$16,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,005.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2428…1e86backed Yes | 13c | 86,319$11,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,519.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…72bdbacked Yes | 0c | 83,291$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 8c | 83,160$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500.12 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…50edbacked Yes | 2c | 82,126$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 0c | 80,750$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 1c | 79,160$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.58 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 1c | 78,118$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 8c | 77,537$6,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,303.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 2c | 75,533$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.32 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceec…4ad9backed Yes | 3c | 73,954$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…abc9backed Yes | 2c | 69,400$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 0c | 67,555$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.56 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 67,075$8,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,374.05 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…9db6backed Yes | 1c | 66,321$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 3c | 64,763$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 18c | 63,354$11,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,221.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed Yes | 0c | 62,118$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 0c | 61,825$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…0b21backed Yes | 6c | 61,748$3,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…824cbacked Yes | 9c | 60,233$5,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,506.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 18c | 58,819$10,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,650.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 58,348$5,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,734.77 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 57,024$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 0c | 53,846$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2220backed Yes | 13c | 52,862$6,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,843.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 50,873$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.39 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 0c | 50,557$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 2c | 50,551$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.74 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 1c | 50,113$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.87 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes | 1c | 49,975$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…51a5backed Yes | 1c | 48,709$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 5c | 48,634$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 48,500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2b…a7c3backed Yes | 23c | 46,877$10,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,726.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 0c | 44,552$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 4c | 44,087$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.14 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 43,099$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 11c | 42,742$4,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,825.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed Yes | 8c | 41,498$3,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,407.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 9c | 41,230$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,846.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 21c | 40,879$8,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,562.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 40,000$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.86 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…84c2backed Yes | 0c | 39,145$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 14c | 39,090$5,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600.72 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 9c | 38,709$3,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,587.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…21e4backed Yes | 0c | 37,499$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…4f13backed Yes | 11c | 34,414$3,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,945.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…16cebacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…37cfbacked Yes | 0c | 33,100$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 14c | 32,847$4,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,462.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…545dbacked Yes | 0c | 32,562$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…74acbacked Yes | 8c | 32,500$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 8c | 32,154$2,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 14c | 31,466$4,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322.43 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…a776backed Yes | 0c | 30,482$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…fec4backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.