TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,813,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,328,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,813,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f58…2813backed Yes0c329,149$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487b…d801backed Yes0c329,149$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c04…2470backed Yes0c328,702$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a0…cb7ebacked Yes0c328,702$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4007…3b7bbacked Yes0c328,702$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c5…1adebacked Yes0c328,677$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aeb…27ffbacked Yes0c326,149$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4711…0069backed Yes0c326,149$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c308,345$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.35160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c46…7eabbacked Yes0c301,481$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc972…708ebacked Yes0c301,059$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49d…c12bbacked Yes0c301,059$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108a…c378backed Yes0c301,056$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f38…ff4fbacked Yes0c262,611$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab5…e123backed Yes0c262,606$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62e…2e72backed Yes0c262,606$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744e…4c43backed Yes0c262,406$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes0c149,790$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.79150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a7c…5cd2backed Yes0c116,903$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38db…3e6dbacked Yes0c116,903$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd611…7ef6backed Yes0c116,903$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adb…eb41backed Yes0c116,868$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd7…036ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58de…608abacked Yes0c99,937$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a41…4cb9backed Yes0c81,681$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e26…a3cabacked Yes0c81,681$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7b…1f8ebacked Yes0c81,681$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e9…3cf1backed Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398a…4129backed Yes0c60,417$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac6…3f43backed Yes0c60,417$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69a7…a8b9backed Yes0c58,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b7f…3fbebacked Yes0c57,539$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e5…7cb1backed Yes0c56,929$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8296…26e7backed Yes0c56,181$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa743…c4f7backed Yes0c55,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018a…a8e6backed Yes0c54,798$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea11…d0dfbacked Yes0c53,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6d…df50backed Yes0c53,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f72…b088backed Yes0c51,150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb8…90c7backed Yes0c51,082$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9bd…68bebacked Yes0c50,838$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b0…b47bbacked Yes0c50,126$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc568…16febacked Yes0c50,126$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefc…eabfbacked Yes0c44,113$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…b053backed Yes0c44,051$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked Yes0c41,499$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9c…6db3backed Yes0c39,139$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35a…c452backed Yes0c35,636$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1051…c118backed Yes0c33,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd13e…ca33backed Yes0c30,470$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.47170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e1…89f8backed Yes0c28,825$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cef…6321backed Yes0c24,601$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…caccbacked Yes0c22,910$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4389…525ebacked Yes0c22,910$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b1…0022backed Yes0c22,910$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa5…d416backed Yes0c22,617$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe617…4835backed Yes0c22,617$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a83…ff20backed Yes0c22,617$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x756e…d3c4backed Yes0c22,617$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa1…2ad0backed Yes0c22,546$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd953…6cacbacked Yes0c22,546$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f1…9bfbbacked Yes0c22,274$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ad…537bbacked Yes0c22,090$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2780…536cbacked Yes0c22,079$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2987…49b0backed Yes0c22,072$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6bf…ecbcbacked Yes0c22,020$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3e…bae7backed Yes0c21,994$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4360…c248backed Yes0c21,990$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1de6…281bbacked Yes0c21,874$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ddd…15babacked Yes0c21,837$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41cd…77b2backed Yes0c21,770$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae5…7145backed Yes0c21,751$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad93…15b4backed Yes0c21,646$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x509d…8cb0backed Yes0c21,638$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8582…6f68backed Yes0c21,595$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c1…35cbbacked Yes0c21,436$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9a…c546backed Yes0c21,371$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd447…c5b2backed Yes0c21,365$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e6…8f6ebacked Yes0c21,358$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2edb…c27fbacked Yes0c21,302$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9727…ffd3backed Yes0c21,132$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f42…8bf8backed Yes0c21,035$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e3…d029backed Yes0c21,016$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…4556backed Yes0c21,013$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c5…dd3fbacked Yes0c20,751$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06d…f2d5backed Yes0c20,707$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c55…ba0abacked Yes0c20,682$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1973…3528backed Yes0c20,666$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e05…f5a7backed Yes0c20,658$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea30…2ee7backed Yes0c20,622$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fe…6ab6backed Yes0c20,579$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e9d…6ce7backed Yes0c20,532$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bfd…2712backed Yes0c20,411$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cbc…62bbbacked Yes0c20,388$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2028…adebbacked Yes0c20,273$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ca…d88abacked Yes0c20,247$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081b…8858backed Yes0c20,209$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3440…e9e0backed Yes0c20,174$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.