TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,922,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$504,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,922,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5636…4b35backed Yes0c2,161,647$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebfe…1ce7backed Yes0c2,122,262$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…0e22backed Yes0c2,115,812$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe82f…79d2backed Yes0c2,111,927$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bae…f80bbacked Yes0c2,061,047$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a8…50d2backed Yes0c2,058,034$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,058.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c4b…f15abacked Yes0c1,045,502$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca6…8b68backed Yes0c240,770$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes0c200,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes0c192,204$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-89.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c186,694$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.69260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked Yes0c148,475$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.06140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c148,160$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.16160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c129,798$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes1c78,649$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc1…d84dbacked Yes0c73,052$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa9…42febacked Yes0c58,671$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8f…bc0abacked Yes0c48,458$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef80…fa9cbacked Yes0c45,395$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2db…7dc1backed Yes0c44,179$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0c…2551backed Yes0c44,178$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda93…73a6backed Yes0c41,915$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d8…72a0backed Yes0c41,604$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb33…45a7backed Yes0c41,378$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f83…bbcfbacked Yes0c40,141$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5115…9997backed Yes0c39,976$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba42…6f1fbacked Yes0c38,876$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5201…79eabacked Yes0c37,379$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a1…7cebbacked Yes0c36,477$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c92…b2f6backed Yes0c35,502$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…3049backed Yes0c35,304$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…a1fabacked Yes0c34,700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7176…0968backed Yes0c34,341$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes0c34,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccbb…95acbacked Yes0c33,642$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3f…1819backed Yes0c32,667$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf913…844dbacked Yes0c31,901$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…5a0ebacked Yes0c31,656$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x138e…d04dbacked Yes0c31,616$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf24b…2e14backed Yes0c31,561$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c00…b48ebacked Yes0c31,543$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac5…e826backed Yes0c31,519$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a2…2ac7backed Yes0c31,386$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3959…29e9backed Yes0c31,348$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dca…ee84backed Yes0c31,299$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b9…9e4bbacked Yes0c27,921$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33e…616dbacked Yes0c27,269$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf35c…05bfbacked Yes0c26,484$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf2…89d2backed Yes0c25,837$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66d…cd0ebacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd1…8d29backed Yes0c24,260$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299c…793fbacked Yes0c22,966$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes0c22,837$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35240%0 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c22,439$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.833187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa6…84a3backed Yes0c21,836$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4362…c0cbbacked Yes0c21,293$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed73…26d4backed Yes0c21,139$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ad…cc4bbacked Yes0c20,499$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57c…eb6cbacked Yes0c20,494$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ec…4b30backed Yes0c20,181$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…7c6abacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1476…4078backed Yes0c19,984$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f05…439bbacked Yes0c18,587$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ff…283dbacked Yes0c18,181$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e9…f0f9backed Yes0c16,667$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc041…411cbacked Yes0c15,790$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816e…7257backed Yes13c14,808$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ea…a356backed Yes0c14,439$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b0…46a6backed Yes0c14,037$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3006…6f28backed Yes0c13,241$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes0c11,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc74…6eb6backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…e623backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf03…22b1backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc0…6a69backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bde…30b5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c8,946$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe389…8a2cbacked Yes0c8,929$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71eb…4c2dbacked Yes0c7,622$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…15c7backed Yes0c6,617$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x810f…6489backed Yes1c6,089$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…2364backed Yes1c5,169$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d72…2f0bbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes0c3,972$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-80.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c2,597$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.716516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Yes3c1,885$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes2c1,214$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759a…572abacked Yes3c1,124$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.