TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,537,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$442,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,537,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8614…4bddbacked Yes0c2,099,171$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4947…eeafbacked Yes0c2,072,138$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.9330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a94…7a9ebacked Yes0c2,024,375$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2409…a86cbacked Yes0c2,024,345$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fed…c2a9backed Yes0c2,024,301$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db5…6489backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a7c…5cd2backed Yes0c199,892$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38db…3e6dbacked Yes0c199,892$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd611…7ef6backed Yes0c199,892$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adb…eb41backed Yes0c199,892$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c191,838$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aeb…27ffbacked Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487b…d801backed Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c04…2470backed Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c5…1adebacked Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a0…cb7ebacked Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4007…3b7bbacked Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f58…2813backed Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4711…0069backed Yes0c173,617$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe206…38cebacked Yes0c99,729$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc773…1ac9backed Yes0c94,040$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea4…93f2backed Yes0c94,026$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a2e…7fc6backed Yes0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0589…5937backed Yes0c68,786$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe98f…06f4backed Yes0c68,481$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3422…c180backed Yes0c68,462$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d7…3b48backed Yes0c68,313$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1f…815dbacked Yes0c68,143$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd893…4bfabacked Yes0c67,761$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe2…3cb8backed Yes0c67,731$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01bf…6d35backed Yes0c67,651$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b0…f409backed Yes0c67,479$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebca…f180backed Yes0c67,458$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f58…bf91backed Yes0c67,452$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66be…21dcbacked Yes0c67,449$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a7…999abacked Yes0c67,426$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a8…75c4backed Yes0c67,295$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…7435backed Yes0c67,282$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc32c…23b4backed Yes0c67,166$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe28…5aadbacked Yes0c66,980$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe761…9af2backed Yes0c66,888$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3590…5ca6backed Yes0c66,857$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc198…bacabacked Yes0c66,795$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e9…9f6dbacked Yes0c66,748$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b6…1067backed Yes0c65,913$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0621…ba46backed Yes0c65,912$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…bdfbbacked Yes0c63,365$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c62,583$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.58160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e58…bd66backed Yes0c61,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb036…b4eebacked Yes0c60,361$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ca…7674backed Yes0c60,187$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb3…b247backed Yes0c60,085$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb02c…3591backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf3…1332backed Yes0c59,603$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a4…49abbacked Yes0c59,386$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770b…9995backed Yes0c59,343$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2690…b884backed Yes0c59,326$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c3…2257backed Yes0c59,293$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa8…3ddbbacked Yes0c59,113$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd99f…d8ecbacked Yes0c58,846$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59d…4c3cbacked Yes0c58,823$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac0…7ce0backed Yes0c58,787$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164c…79b5backed Yes0c58,775$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…18e5backed Yes0c58,467$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39bb…a1dabacked Yes0c58,380$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x678d…d3cabacked Yes0c58,320$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd4…3ae3backed Yes0c58,195$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4df…2b15backed Yes0c58,194$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd884…dd77backed Yes0c58,126$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…77c8backed Yes0c57,960$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eec…2de8backed Yes0c57,939$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…d0debacked Yes0c57,830$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f5…c34ebacked Yes0c57,783$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb0f…ab60backed Yes0c57,726$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be3…db9fbacked Yes0c57,706$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c6…49cbbacked Yes0c57,608$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe9…17cebacked Yes0c57,573$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c10…1a8bbacked Yes0c57,551$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f14…5b1ebacked Yes0c57,481$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9060…66a6backed Yes0c57,127$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe759…4144backed Yes0c57,056$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b45…4ff6backed Yes0c57,052$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f2…7444backed Yes0c57,042$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8029…32a2backed Yes0c57,020$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034c…78d7backed Yes0c57,020$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0365…a868backed Yes0c57,017$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ca…bd98backed Yes0c57,012$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd801…2eb4backed Yes0c56,988$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8947…566bbacked Yes0c56,954$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf07f…47ffbacked Yes0c56,942$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x613a…481cbacked Yes0c56,875$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785e…7b32backed Yes0c56,823$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b5…f42abacked Yes0c56,762$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0c…52cbbacked Yes0c56,706$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa29b…2127backed Yes0c56,649$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9087…19a1backed Yes0c56,590$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9593…6b32backed Yes0c56,491$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ca…e1d3backed Yes0c56,485$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…4c10backed Yes0c56,453$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9db…a270backed Yes0c56,448$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.