TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,847,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,329,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,847,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc680…e94cbacked Yes0c2,980,866$6,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,562.570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad9…7bf6backed Yes0c1,633,787$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.751838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes0c1,459,968$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick10cpaid+220.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c1,127,602$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.6260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf657…108ebacked Yes3c668,634$17,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,805.5880%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c546,352$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes0c446,052$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.532412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-59.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c429,548$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.47820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes0c400,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed Yes0c400,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc704…045cbacked Yes1c369,433$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,125.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes0c295,958$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.443023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5781…bbfbbacked Yes1c289,904$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9623…8cdfbacked Yes1c212,807$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed Yes0c207,768$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.14119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfabb…78f7backed Yes0c185,064$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9488…d531backed Yes0c150,654$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.312412.5%3 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes0c142,913$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.73156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f56…6903backed Yes0c120,357$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870c…5806backed Yes0c101,790$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.41118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-70.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x690c…8247backed Yes1c101,331$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa0…8779backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482b…f221backed Yes0c85,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Yes0c80,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+82.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes0c79,418$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.822931%9 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-43.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1615…e4babacked Yes1c77,724$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes0c75,682$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.32258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c75,328$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.05254%1 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-77%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8714…4faabacked Yes0c75,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes0c74,716$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.15392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3b…1e2ebacked Yes1c74,357$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.5860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…93c6backed Yes7c74,228$4,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,926.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c72,299$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes0c68,482$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.99714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c67,308$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.92230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a9…1929backed Yes0c66,900$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes0c66,171$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.272626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes1c65,169$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.77230%0 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked Yes0c65,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6cc…72afbacked Yes0c62,300$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd1…88bdbacked Yes0c60,754$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes0c60,289$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.31283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd2…116abacked Yes1c60,077$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes0c55,555$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.561330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes0c54,751$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.52927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5831…72bdbacked Yes0c51,056$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6819…fb70backed Yes0c50,153$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…a42dbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes0c50,000$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe21…65e5backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c47,910$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.93190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes0c47,507$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x488d…8804backed Yes0c46,633$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c46,264$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.79170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b9…f88cbacked Yes0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af3…e58bbacked Yes1c41,048$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95b…78b5backed Yes0c40,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes1c40,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c36,312$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.85452.2%1 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf782…e5f9backed Yes0c35,833$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes1c35,767$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.142231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa743…c4f7backed Yes0c35,326$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5049…ae27backed Yes0c34,451$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.66922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick12cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c33,900$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.71643.1%2 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81c…33aebacked Yes1c33,817$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes0c33,083$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.73520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-57%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes0c32,437$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.442512%3 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes1c31,944$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.62150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes1c31,573$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes1c31,277$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes0c30,757$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.821520%3 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…07d6backed Yes2c30,552$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9698…0d2abacked Yes0c30,505$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2db1…df10backed Yes0c29,960$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.96825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9634…bd44backed Yes0c29,920$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes1c29,200$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.32948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes0c27,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf50e…e8edbacked Yes0c27,448$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc55f…2d80backed Yes0c27,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-60.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes1c25,848$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.71150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes1c25,296$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.22147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes0c24,460$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8390%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes0c23,914$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.468333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes0c22,845$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.69214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-56.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc13a…f97fbacked Yes1c22,644$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes0c22,413$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.364314%6 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c21,884$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b5…c1f9backed Yes0c21,883$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f6…4790backed Yes1c21,627$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b5…af57backed Yes0c21,283$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes0c21,014$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.062317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+214.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d80…775bbacked Yes0c21,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes0c20,913$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afa…bfe8backed Yes2c20,765$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Yes0c20,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes1c20,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf317…9a95backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.