Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94947a23e965124fa382e3ff89827b7bb00c2e2f3f9c0b92137e639d4cbfb080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,847,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,329,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,847,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc680…e94cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,980,866$6,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,562.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed Yes | 0c | 1,633,787$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 0c | 1,459,968$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 1,127,602$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.6 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 3c | 668,634$17,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,805.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 546,352$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 446,052$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.53 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 429,548$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.47 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 400,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…045cbacked Yes | 1c | 369,433$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 295,958$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.44 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…bbfbbacked Yes | 1c | 289,904$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…8cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 212,807$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Yes | 0c | 207,768$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabb…78f7backed Yes | 0c | 185,064$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 0c | 150,654$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.31 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 0c | 142,913$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.73 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…6903backed Yes | 0c | 120,357$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 0c | 101,790$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…8247backed Yes | 1c | 101,331$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…8779backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…f221backed Yes | 0c | 85,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 0c | 79,418$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.82 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…e4babacked Yes | 1c | 77,724$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 0c | 75,682$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.32 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 75,328$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.05 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 0c | 75,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 0c | 74,716$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.15 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…1e2ebacked Yes | 1c | 74,357$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…93c6backed Yes | 7c | 74,228$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,926.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 72,299$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 0c | 68,482$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 67,308$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…1929backed Yes | 0c | 66,900$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 0c | 66,171$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 1c | 65,169$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.77 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 0c | 65,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…72afbacked Yes | 0c | 62,300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…88bdbacked Yes | 0c | 60,754$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 0c | 60,289$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…116abacked Yes | 1c | 60,077$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 0c | 55,555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 0c | 54,751$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…72bdbacked Yes | 0c | 51,056$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…fb70backed Yes | 0c | 50,153$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…65e5backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 1c | 47,910$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.93 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 0c | 47,507$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488d…8804backed Yes | 0c | 46,633$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 46,264$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…f88cbacked Yes | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…e58bbacked Yes | 1c | 41,048$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…78b5backed Yes | 0c | 40,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 1c | 40,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 36,312$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.85 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…e5f9backed Yes | 0c | 35,833$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 1c | 35,767$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…c4f7backed Yes | 0c | 35,326$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…ae27backed Yes | 0c | 34,451$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 33,900$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…33aebacked Yes | 1c | 33,817$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 0c | 33,083$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -57%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 0c | 32,437$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 31,944$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.62 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed Yes | 1c | 31,573$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…d0a6backed Yes | 1c | 31,277$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 0c | 30,757$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…07d6backed Yes | 2c | 30,552$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…0d2abacked Yes | 0c | 30,505$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…df10backed Yes | 0c | 29,960$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…bd44backed Yes | 0c | 29,920$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 1c | 29,200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes | 0c | 27,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf50e…e8edbacked Yes | 0c | 27,448$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…2d80backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,848$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 1c | 25,296$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,460$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 23,914$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 22,845$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13a…f97fbacked Yes | 1c | 22,644$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 0c | 22,413$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 21,884$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…c1f9backed Yes | 0c | 21,883$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…4790backed Yes | 1c | 21,627$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b5…af57backed Yes | 0c | 21,283$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 0c | 21,014$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d80…775bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,913$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afa…bfe8backed Yes | 2c | 20,765$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf317…9a95backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.