Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60acc46cda1f0619259acf3ef8c77bf734ff08cbed256ca3d1e9444138e21266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,875,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,044,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,875,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed Yes | 0c | 499,971$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 398,582$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.33 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 324,158$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.1 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 254,408$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.92 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…488bbacked Yes | 0c | 251,100$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ca33backed Yes | 0c | 205,738$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.61 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 171,720$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.64 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 0c | 126,720$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 0c | 77,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…1249backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…de52backed Yes | 0c | 73,500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…3630backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a82…0048backed Yes | 0c | 58,636$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…a356backed Yes | 0c | 57,249$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…608abacked Yes | 0c | 53,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…88bdbacked Yes | 0c | 51,490$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 0c | 51,343$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 50,737$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…0cd8backed Yes | 0c | 50,060$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…2505backed Yes | 0c | 45,936$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 38,890$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…383dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…2742backed Yes | 0c | 32,922$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd04…dda0backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…0eb7backed Yes | 0c | 30,650$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…74e6backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…ae27backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…ac8cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,837$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…23f7backed Yes | 0c | 23,047$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes | 0c | 22,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 0c | 22,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf24…b64cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…577cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…3ec3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…2c02backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…d8ccbacked Yes | 0c | 18,128$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882d…2e86backed Yes | 0c | 17,690$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…36eebacked Yes | 0c | 17,669$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…a7f6backed Yes | 0c | 17,115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…8b0bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,511$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…b8bcbacked Yes | 0c | 13,080$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…8a39backed Yes | 0c | 12,901$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0807…1d29backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 12,088$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,203$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…f572backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…7b92backed Yes | 1c | 10,012$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…185cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…a94dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…09dfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…1dc6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…c05bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa758…03c5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…1f1cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…0c12backed Yes | 0c | 9,970$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…4095backed Yes | 0c | 9,869$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…5a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,869$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 0c | 9,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,058$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 0c | 8,708$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…02a2backed Yes | 0c | 8,250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9203…e4b8backed Yes | 0c | 8,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e6…4f99backed Yes | 1c | 8,070$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 0c | 7,973$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Yes | 0c | 7,900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…2308backed Yes | 0c | 7,850$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,814$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…9e8cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c6…234ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,550$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…65f6backed Yes | 0c | 7,509$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f4…7b59backed Yes | 0c | 7,450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…0d03backed Yes | 0c | 7,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…4708backed Yes | 1c | 7,120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3e9backed Yes | 0c | 7,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…b045backed Yes | 0c | 7,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…5189backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.