Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcc87b9ca36015e396bd0eebca29e854a136ed2b0b701049d1ee9da6bee3eb35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,122,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,552,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,122,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,753 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Yes | 0c | 3,993,372$3,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,993.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 1,740,582$3,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,481.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 952,608$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 5c | 741,301$34,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,728.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 681,749$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.25 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df5…61e1backed Yes | 52c | 540,282$281,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281,308.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 474,999$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 56c | 398,984$224,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224,454.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 11c | 369,103$38,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,816.24 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…d8d0backed Yes | 1c | 367,699$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 8c | 286,716$21,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,924.74 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…f7ebbacked Yes | 0c | 228,233$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes | 0c | 216,102$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…fec4backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 199,999$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 7c | 193,023$13,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,334.87 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 187,593$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.19 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 0c | 175,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 48c | 156,283$75,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,463.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…137bbacked Yes | 0c | 150,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…440ebacked Yes | 0c | 129,907$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f9…7550backed Yes | 1c | 127,808$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…d6ddbacked Yes | 31c | 123,316$38,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,380.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…3471backed Yes | 16c | 121,273$19,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,906.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes | 76c | 120,471$91,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,071.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 7c | 115,435$7,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,680.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…318dbacked Yes | 1c | 115,051$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…cc74backed Yes | 20c | 108,918$22,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,123.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1138…e410backed Yes | 9c | 108,376$10,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,007.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 47c | 100,321$47,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,439.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd459…13f9backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…6646backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…091dbacked Yes | 0c | 99,630$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9170…02aabacked Yes | 0c | 99,500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 25c | 99,331$24,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,365.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 43c | 98,426$42,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,903.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3044…9ff8backed Yes | 36c | 91,714$33,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,073.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 0c | 84,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc3…2f17backed Yes | 0c | 83,096$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 20c | 81,844$16,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,662.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes | 38c | 80,665$30,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,268.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1817…f3c6backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…417cbacked Yes | 7c | 79,867$5,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,344.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 15c | 76,212$11,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,410.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…9a4dbacked Yes | 13c | 76,132$9,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,521.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 42c | 70,981$29,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,478.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…9297backed No | 48c | 69,500$33,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,249.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 60c | 68,945$41,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,568.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 8c | 68,570$5,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,333.35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +559.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 1c | 66,578$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.78 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 29c | 65,004$18,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,549.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…55a1backed Yes | 15c | 64,684$9,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,888.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Yes | 36c | 63,506$23,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,107.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…dadbbacked Yes | 31c | 62,534$19,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,297.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 61,527$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0629…abb6backed Yes | 0c | 60,220$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 6c | 59,731$3,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,685.89 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c38…ca92backed Yes | 17c | 59,589$9,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,966 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 45c | 58,999$26,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,737.36 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 53c | 58,757$31,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,332.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…78b5backed Yes | 1c | 58,331$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…c2a0backed No | 47c | 56,648$26,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,090.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes | 66c | 53,701$35,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,670.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…66c4backed Yes | 1c | 53,375$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa018…a27abacked Yes | 0c | 52,396$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed Yes | 45c | 52,219$23,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,531.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…f261backed Yes | 38c | 52,146$20,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,063.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 5c | 51,690$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed No | 52c | 51,144$26,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,309.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…ccc5backed Yes | 0c | 50,062$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…72bdbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e20…6c61backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683e…308dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…0d36backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes | 1c | 49,980$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Yes | 36c | 48,497$17,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,436.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…ba76backed Yes | 0c | 48,466$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 29c | 47,817$13,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,884.92 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 16c | 45,694$7,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,116.83 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…bb24backed Yes | 2c | 45,598$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 0c | 45,455$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 45,443$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…e61fbacked Yes | 2c | 44,586$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 9c | 44,335$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,892.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 6c | 43,214$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.61 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 32c | 42,413$13,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,702.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 33c | 42,320$13,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,490.89 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Yes | 14c | 42,176$5,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,904.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b99…bad3backed Yes | 74c | 41,117$30,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,226.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…c5f8backed Yes | 68c | 40,729$27,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…c6afbacked Yes | 0c | 40,585$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488d…8804backed Yes | 0c | 39,628$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…9842backed Yes | 0c | 39,427$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,167$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 16c | 38,931$6,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,235.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…2ca8backed Yes | 16c | 38,672$6,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,169.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bb…df7fbacked Yes | 0c | 37,917$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 40c | 37,308$14,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,309.54 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 21c | 36,077$7,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,564.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.