TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,122,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,552,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,122,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,753 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed10…d2e5backed Yes0c3,993,372$3,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,993.37633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-50.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed Yes0c1,740,582$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,481.1680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes0c952,608$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,391.6120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes5c741,301$34,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,728.682015%3 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c681,749$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.25352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df5…61e1backed Yes52c540,282$281,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,308.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c474,999$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes56c398,984$224,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224,454.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes11c369,103$38,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,816.242725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe824…d8d0backed Yes1c367,699$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes8c286,716$21,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,924.74156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ee…f7ebbacked Yes0c228,233$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes0c216,102$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96da…fec4backed Yes0c200,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c199,999$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes7c193,023$13,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,334.87166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c187,593$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.19820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes0c175,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes48c156,283$75,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,463.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d0…137bbacked Yes0c150,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5b…440ebacked Yes0c129,907$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f9…7550backed Yes1c127,808$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e20…d6ddbacked Yes31c123,316$38,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,380.64650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8373…3471backed Yes16c121,273$19,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,906.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes76c120,471$91,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,071.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes7c115,435$7,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,680.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick10cpaid+220.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c76…318dbacked Yes1c115,051$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699a…cc74backed Yes20c108,918$22,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,123.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1138…e410backed Yes9c108,376$10,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,007.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes47c100,321$47,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,439.191533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd459…13f9backed Yes1c100,000$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc357…6646backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ee…091dbacked Yes0c99,630$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9170…02aabacked Yes0c99,500$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes25c99,331$24,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,365.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No43c98,426$42,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,903.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3044…9ff8backed Yes36c91,714$33,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,073.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes0c84,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc3…2f17backed Yes0c83,096$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes20c81,844$16,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,662.35825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes38c80,665$30,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,268.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1817…f3c6backed Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6884…417cbacked Yes7c79,867$5,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,344.2714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-60.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes15c76,212$11,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,410.771154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x720d…9a4dbacked Yes13c76,132$9,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,521.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes42c70,981$29,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,478.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee30…9297backed No48c69,500$33,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,249.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No60c68,945$41,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,568.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes8c68,570$5,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.351216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+559.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes1c66,578$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.78303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes29c65,004$18,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,549.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5efb…55a1backed Yes15c64,684$9,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,888.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Yes36c63,506$23,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,107.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6369…dadbbacked Yes31c62,534$19,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,297.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c61,527$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.53160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0629…abb6backed Yes0c60,220$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes6c59,731$3,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,685.89258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c38…ca92backed Yes17c59,589$9,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,96610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No45c58,999$26,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,737.363423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No53c58,757$31,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,332.73850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc95b…78b5backed Yes1c58,331$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.41100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa87…c2a0backed No47c56,648$26,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,090.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-28.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes66c53,701$35,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,670.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x404d…66c4backed Yes1c53,375$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa018…a27abacked Yes0c52,396$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48e…a144backed Yes45c52,219$23,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,531.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-85.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac0…f261backed Yes38c52,146$20,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,063.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes5c51,690$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed No52c51,144$26,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,309.23560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9f…ccc5backed Yes0c50,062$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-67.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5831…72bdbacked Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e20…6c61backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683e…308dbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6786…0d36backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes1c49,980$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Yes36c48,497$17,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,436.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a1…ba76backed Yes0c48,466$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes29c47,817$13,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,884.923225%8 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes16c45,694$7,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,116.83329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe524…bb24backed Yes2c45,598$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes0c45,455$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.26170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…e623backed Yes0c45,443$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.37240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a8…e61fbacked Yes2c44,586$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.451010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-86.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes9c44,335$3,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,892.42812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-82.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c43,214$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.61392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x025e…0420backed Yes32c42,413$13,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,702.83933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No33c42,320$13,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,490.894344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed Yes14c42,176$5,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,904.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b99…bad3backed Yes74c41,117$30,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,226.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4aa…c5f8backed Yes68c40,729$27,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,800366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7e…c6afbacked Yes0c40,585$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x488d…8804backed Yes0c39,628$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db6…9842backed Yes0c39,427$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes0c39,167$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes16c38,931$6,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,235.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2638…2ca8backed Yes16c38,672$6,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,169.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23bb…df7fbacked Yes0c37,917$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No40c37,308$14,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,309.543043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes21c36,077$7,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,564.7370%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.