TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,765,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$525,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,765,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x187b…acdcbacked Yes0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd13e…ca33backed Yes0c140,008$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.01170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes0c100,010$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.668333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c96,530$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.53160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870c…5806backed Yes0c79,663$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.321118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-70.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4f…6ebabacked Yes0c72,228$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.461323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-60.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed Yes0c59,936$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.34728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick10cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes0c51,341$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.34150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes0c49,979$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.983023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf811…1792backed Yes7c48,000$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,357.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfd…46f8backed Yes0c42,094$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c41,999$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x398a…4129backed Yes0c40,512$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac6…3f43backed Yes0c40,512$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc676…a9eebacked Yes0c36,047$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes4c34,226$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.486516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ed…0de6backed Yes0c28,067$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ec…439fbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes0c20,881$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c20,166$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc55f…2d80backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-60.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c23…96a4backed Yes0c16,650$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…7c6abacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes0c15,491$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.491520%3 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c15,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c14,057$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…2a83backed Yes0c13,988$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afb…c6b2backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bd5…1800backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b9…1b89backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…3ac0backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba89…d6d5backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0051…fbacbacked Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6425…a405backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa320…32e2backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x244c…d416backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3057…d6e9backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d4…72b3backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1c…100ebacked Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5df…5f65backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf65…6274backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc86…52c7backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c77…5e09backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdecb…d55cbacked Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294e…d3d9backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ed…1bfdbacked Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x503f…8ad5backed Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4554…ac4abacked Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f8…1ffabacked Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…441dbacked Yes0c13,442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7192…b029backed Yes0c13,430$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbecb…7824backed Yes0c12,988$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5a…7898backed Yes0c11,600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b5…61e0backed Yes0c11,320$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf247…09d0backed Yes0c10,860$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f3…8da7backed Yes0c10,860$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3290…1c5bbacked Yes0c10,860$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes0c10,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81316.5%2 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-71.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…e623backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44aa…c638backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96c…2a2bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc776…c523backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c7,510$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.913187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b70…64fcbacked Yes1c7,150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f5…ab64backed Yes2c7,150$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a75…1875backed Yes1c7,120$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c7,115$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.696829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddaf…7ce0backed Yes1c7,110$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabf…d3fcbacked Yes1c7,110$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48a…75d6backed Yes1c7,110$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…2c11backed Yes1c7,110$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6103…19b1backed Yes1c7,105$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb47…fe9fbacked Yes1c7,100$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827f…3117backed Yes1c7,030$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-85.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes3c2,844$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.24160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes1c2,380$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-73.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes1c1,784$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.371931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+41.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e5a…0042backed Yes1c1,514$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c1,269$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.084712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes12c1,223$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.374847.9%23 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes3c999.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes8c936.43$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.915131.4%16 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes11c918.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003520%7 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes10c681$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.11127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606355.6%35 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c425.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9810713.1%14 W · 93 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes11c334$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.74238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c313.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9720021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes6c290.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes6c219.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07200%0 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac6…c6ecbacked Yes14c190.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.