Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x582c62c350aac2720711abeb30b16c41c5cdc9b342bfa30da380b6ea6bdeb1ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,765,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $525,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,765,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187b…acdcbacked Yes | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ca33backed Yes | 0c | 140,008$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 100,010$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.66 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 96,530$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 0c | 79,663$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6ebabacked Yes | 0c | 72,228$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed Yes | 0c | 59,936$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 0c | 51,341$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 49,979$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…1792backed Yes | 7c | 48,000$3,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,357.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…46f8backed Yes | 0c | 42,094$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 41,999$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…4129backed Yes | 0c | 40,512$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…3f43backed Yes | 0c | 40,512$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…a9eebacked Yes | 0c | 36,047$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 34,226$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.48 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ed…0de6backed Yes | 0c | 28,067$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…439fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,881$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 20,166$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…2d80backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…96a4backed Yes | 0c | 16,650$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…7c6abacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 0c | 15,491$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 15,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,057$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…2a83backed Yes | 0c | 13,988$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…c6b2backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd5…1800backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b9…1b89backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…3ac0backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…d6d5backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0051…fbacbacked Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…a405backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa320…32e2backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244c…d416backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…d6e9backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…72b3backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1c…100ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…5f65backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…6274backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…52c7backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c77…5e09backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…d55cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…d3d9backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…1bfdbacked Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…8ad5backed Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4554…ac4abacked Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…1ffabacked Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…441dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…b029backed Yes | 0c | 13,430$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecb…7824backed Yes | 0c | 12,988$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…7898backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b5…61e0backed Yes | 0c | 11,320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…09d0backed Yes | 0c | 10,860$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…8da7backed Yes | 0c | 10,860$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…1c5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,860$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…c638backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…2a2bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…c523backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,510$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…64fcbacked Yes | 1c | 7,150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f5…ab64backed Yes | 2c | 7,150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a75…1875backed Yes | 1c | 7,120$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 7,115$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.69 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…7ce0backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…d3fcbacked Yes | 1c | 7,110$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc48a…75d6backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…2c11backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…19b1backed Yes | 1c | 7,105$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…fe9fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,100$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…3117backed Yes | 1c | 7,030$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 2,844$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 1c | 2,380$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,784$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0042backed Yes | 1c | 1,514$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,269$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 12c | 1,223$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.37 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 8c | 936.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 11c | 918.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 10c | 681$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 425.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 11c | 334$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 313.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes | 6c | 290.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 219.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac6…c6ecbacked Yes | 14c | 190.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.