TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,383,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$313,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,383,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3a3…cc71backed Yes0c348,580$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda8…f548backed Yes0c329,220$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a02…66debacked Yes0c309,854$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c3…55c0backed Yes0c290,144$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c4a…5c09backed Yes0c270,844$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e9…c9b0backed Yes0c251,511$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ed…9d1abacked Yes0c228,410$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cb…e009backed Yes0c156,950$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77b…90ddbacked Yes0c155,200$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c155,013$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c143,383$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.38160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes0c141,735$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.88150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb339…f230backed Yes0c108,077$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf1e…62bdbacked Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf244…bccabacked Yes0c97,030$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf121…90c9backed Yes0c91,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269b…f79bbacked Yes0c88,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd880…81cfbacked Yes0c84,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…c51ebacked Yes0c73,680$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac6f…cf53backed Yes0c72,400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa9…dd08backed Yes0c72,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…7ecbbacked Yes0c68,000$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d8…66d5backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc315…dd7cbacked Yes0c60,263$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbc…d334backed Yes0c59,876$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd6…77b3backed Yes0c59,771$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3e…5348backed Yes0c59,753$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae33…582fbacked Yes0c59,699$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x874f…7159backed Yes0c59,593$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a6…7caebacked Yes0c59,327$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab4…255bbacked Yes0c59,326$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b1…b7a1backed Yes0c59,257$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4934…d6dcbacked Yes0c58,781$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ef…7aa6backed Yes0c58,779$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5657…ad3abacked Yes0c58,698$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdb…062cbacked Yes0c58,665$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff37…20c8backed Yes0c58,594$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ed…bee8backed Yes0c58,582$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfa…b7fabacked Yes0c58,359$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6df…9455backed Yes0c58,358$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef89…deb8backed Yes0c58,264$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b6…6f9bbacked Yes0c58,052$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a1…4377backed Yes0c57,966$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f54…1f2ebacked Yes0c57,942$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f0e…984dbacked Yes0c57,909$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3732…71d5backed Yes0c57,895$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824d…78b7backed Yes0c57,848$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa214…e767backed Yes0c57,724$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f0…a998backed Yes0c57,681$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b3…65b4backed Yes0c57,609$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5409…e013backed Yes0c57,498$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3473…357cbacked Yes0c57,450$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…7b29backed Yes0c57,420$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…9908backed Yes0c56,966$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb0…a6c5backed Yes0c56,786$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea59…9140backed Yes0c56,771$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f49…8276backed Yes0c56,610$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b4…e6f7backed Yes0c56,382$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdee…e2d3backed Yes0c56,282$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4336…54e3backed Yes0c56,068$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc98…21adbacked Yes0c56,024$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc56…8b27backed Yes0c55,847$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcade…9f59backed Yes0c55,786$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370c…a3bfbacked Yes0c55,786$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b9…4da5backed Yes0c55,762$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca56…e930backed Yes0c55,643$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed2…ee24backed Yes0c55,519$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997f…e6f2backed Yes0c55,484$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ee…d0cabacked Yes0c55,460$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743c…4930backed Yes0c55,432$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd4…78cbbacked Yes0c55,289$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be0…3bc0backed Yes0c55,265$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa888…8b62backed Yes0c55,253$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe184…98fcbacked Yes0c55,193$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f5…0dd4backed Yes0c55,170$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc88…315dbacked Yes0c55,122$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f4…b485backed Yes0c55,093$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d44…f9a9backed Yes0c55,085$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0d…a3eebacked Yes0c54,995$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3d…3a8fbacked Yes0c54,993$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcc…3922backed Yes0c54,970$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca0c…030fbacked Yes0c54,969$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba9…7696backed Yes0c54,738$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db8…d6f6backed Yes0c43,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ba…f38bbacked Yes0c42,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…8c68backed Yes0c40,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69fa…61d4backed Yes0c39,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc021…511abacked Yes0c38,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed Yes0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick10cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88d0…42a8backed Yes0c31,909$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d699backed Yes0c30,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e51…e8adbacked Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7471…a6dabacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68aa…794ebacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b17…7990backed Yes0c24,904$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95d9backed Yes0c24,622$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e1…d1f3backed Yes0c22,713$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.