Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d40e851b24d9b0af4bc1942ccd86439cae82a9011767da14950df0ad997adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,684,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,902,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,684,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,728 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x385d…b6fabacked Yes | 0c | 3,542,431$6,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,007.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…cbf1backed Yes | 2c | 2,500,002$41,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,923 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a54…b8bebacked Yes | 2c | 2,240,688$44,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,347.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…900cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,005,864$65,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,201.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b5…a045backed Yes | 3c | 1,980,138$63,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,597.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…2b4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,773,649$24,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,080.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 1c | 1,580,184$20,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,756.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…2ce7backed Yes | 4c | 1,358,738$53,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,093.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,300,432$36,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,938.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb095…80e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,299,501$9,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 0c | 1,265,896$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…395cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,107,435$24,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,876.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…e116backed Yes | 1c | 1,103,045$5,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,714.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,088,796$30,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,691.17 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,080,633$26,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,540.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca56backed Yes | 1c | 1,005,623$5,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,727.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…2242backed Yes | 2c | 985,322$17,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,549.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…08e4backed Yes | 1c | 820,883$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…56eabacked Yes | 1c | 773,215$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,952.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 1c | 730,108$8,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,280.97 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd86…f2c8backed Yes | 0c | 704,319$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed Yes | 3c | 667,300$18,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,861.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes | 2c | 640,135$12,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,729.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…787dbacked Yes | 2c | 631,151$10,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,696.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d55…0d64backed Yes | 2c | 612,585$12,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,917.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…7410backed Yes | 2c | 604,373$12,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,987.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…e21dbacked Yes | 0c | 542,571$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…f82fbacked Yes | 1c | 527,180$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…85a2backed Yes | 1c | 525,996$7,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,157 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbb…eba1backed Yes | 1c | 500,108$4,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1518backed Yes | 2c | 498,954$11,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,377 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…036ebacked Yes | 1c | 493,125$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,926.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…2962backed Yes | 2c | 482,644$8,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,768.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ec…99c6backed Yes | 1c | 474,286$7,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,060.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…b993backed Yes | 0c | 438,715$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…c2bebacked Yes | 2c | 411,310$7,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,045.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…5093backed Yes | 3c | 408,225$10,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,754.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…c9f7backed Yes | 3c | 394,386$12,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,888.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…0636backed Yes | 0c | 393,771$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 1c | 388,424$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.39 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3819backed Yes | 0c | 385,066$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…91cdbacked Yes | 0c | 377,370$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xface…04bdbacked Yes | 0c | 377,190$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…bf9fbacked Yes | 0c | 371,883$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be6…330fbacked Yes | 4c | 370,201$15,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,343.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76a…0d2fbacked Yes | 2c | 360,588$7,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,132.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes | 1c | 354,748$4,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,497.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 3c | 350,647$9,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,380.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…9536backed Yes | 3c | 333,448$9,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,885.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e3…296bbacked Yes | 2c | 318,707$7,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,727.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 308,900$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.58 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…d137backed Yes | 1c | 300,238$3,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f23…228fbacked Yes | 2c | 293,354$5,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,123.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 1c | 282,529$3,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,870.82 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…1464backed Yes | 0c | 281,621$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8f22backed Yes | 1c | 278,189$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f58…3c43backed Yes | 1c | 275,563$3,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked Yes | 2c | 275,011$6,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,167.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…2a2bbacked Yes | 1c | 261,127$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e6…8992backed Yes | 0c | 260,416$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…d80abacked Yes | 1c | 255,215$3,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,569 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 3c | 255,000$8,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,496.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…9cb5backed Yes | 1c | 249,518$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3d9abacked Yes | 0c | 248,155$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4adc…eb3abacked Yes | 1c | 244,471$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2879…5385backed Yes | 2c | 244,391$5,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,690.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…417cbacked Yes | 1c | 240,107$3,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7b…015fbacked Yes | 2c | 236,781$3,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,992.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…33fdbacked Yes | 3c | 231,650$7,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,925.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…d8a2backed Yes | 3c | 231,355$7,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,789.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…9dc4backed Yes | 3c | 231,265$7,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,117.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…cf9abacked Yes | 3c | 231,119$6,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,692.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffba…3e79backed Yes | 1c | 230,513$2,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…2f7ebacked Yes | 1c | 225,372$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…5e57backed Yes | 3c | 222,554$6,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,305.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0d…1fc5backed Yes | 1c | 222,248$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…cba6backed Yes | 3c | 218,876$6,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,112.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…d488backed Yes | 5c | 218,029$9,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,967.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 2c | 217,791$4,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,786.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…f4bdbacked Yes | 1c | 214,073$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,985.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…8bf9backed Yes | 1c | 205,215$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f6…2ad7backed Yes | 1c | 204,529$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9793…789cbacked Yes | 2c | 202,675$4,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,185.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…ddb2backed Yes | 3c | 195,981$5,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,946.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…358bbacked Yes | 3c | 193,423$5,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,390.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060e…2384backed Yes | 4c | 193,000$7,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,586.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…185cbacked Yes | 4c | 192,444$8,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,373.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…92dcbacked Yes | 1c | 182,293$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…1cb6backed Yes | 1c | 177,074$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 174,582$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,483.38 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…403cbacked Yes | 0c | 170,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…72aabacked Yes | 1c | 168,644$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…0d97backed Yes | 5c | 165,286$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Yes | 4c | 162,044$5,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,672.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1f…749cbacked Yes | 1c | 161,543$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…1093backed Yes | 1c | 159,553$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…0e11backed Yes | 2c | 157,899$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc669…2afabacked Yes | 0c | 156,250$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…8bf7backed Yes | 2c | 154,448$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,920.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 154,346$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.71 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.