Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe844e12246d8504b8ec30c1d461718dbc9645fb73487ca50e5e716eefbb2bc63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,154,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,154,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b20…0940backed Yes | 0c | 1,641,221$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…da37backed Yes | 0c | 1,564,342$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3544…7c0dbacked Yes | 0c | 1,563,329$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…20aabacked Yes | 0c | 1,563,130$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…d887backed Yes | 0c | 1,030,662$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…f1f4backed Yes | 0c | 1,030,662$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bb…a831backed Yes | 0c | 1,030,622$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…ab16backed Yes | 0c | 1,029,816$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…7044backed Yes | 0c | 1,007,662$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…5c97backed Yes | 0c | 1,005,672$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8734…8505backed Yes | 0c | 1,005,672$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…d02ebacked Yes | 0c | 1,005,672$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…d801backed Yes | 0c | 315,526$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…2813backed Yes | 0c | 315,526$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…0069backed Yes | 0c | 315,526$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…2470backed Yes | 0c | 315,078$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…cb7ebacked Yes | 0c | 315,078$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4007…3b7bbacked Yes | 0c | 315,078$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…1adebacked Yes | 0c | 315,054$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…68c5backed Yes | 0c | 210,096$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…184abacked Yes | 0c | 210,096$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…23dbbacked Yes | 0c | 210,096$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…78cabacked Yes | 0c | 210,096$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b0…c002backed Yes | 0c | 210,096$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…f3f2backed Yes | 0c | 210,090$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…27ffbacked Yes | 0c | 208,496$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…eeafbacked Yes | 0c | 159,036$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 121,111$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 109,530$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…5cd2backed Yes | 0c | 106,597$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…3e6dbacked Yes | 0c | 106,597$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…7ef6backed Yes | 0c | 106,597$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adb…eb41backed Yes | 0c | 106,597$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 98,301$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 0c | 82,816$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c4…7247backed Yes | 0c | 77,998$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…4c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 77,998$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ee29backed Yes | 0c | 77,897$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…6a1fbacked Yes | 0c | 77,865$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…38cebacked Yes | 0c | 57,571$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…8c7dbacked Yes | 0c | 53,298$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…6db4backed Yes | 0c | 48,252$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…c790backed Yes | 0c | 48,252$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…376cbacked Yes | 0c | 47,929$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…bd55backed Yes | 0c | 47,506$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…a9eebacked Yes | 0c | 37,571$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…8f17backed Yes | 0c | 30,832$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…3b58backed Yes | 0c | 28,252$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…0ababacked Yes | 0c | 27,519$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…feb6backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…fe85backed Yes | 0c | 20,325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…8dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…ea50backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…2876backed Yes | 0c | 19,975$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 16,743$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…99f9backed Yes | 0c | 16,415$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a3…dbd2backed Yes | 0c | 16,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…5f65backed Yes | 0c | 14,775$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…6f40backed Yes | 0c | 14,087$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,621$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…8b68backed Yes | 0c | 13,580$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed Yes | 0c | 13,081$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…aa33backed Yes | 0c | 11,965$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1935…900cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…c3f7backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…887fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…690cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,623$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b0…46a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,304$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…de7fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…5c52backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…9e61backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74b…7a36backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfa…6deabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…15a8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…3350backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…0a46backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58e…afc3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,629$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.