Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc830d19ead001f5378792cc0df36004ddb1b312bb26fbd5c4226aa698c41f808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,724,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,454,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,724,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e7…50e9backed Yes | 0c | 2,435,940$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 1,676,526$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.54 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 1,350,624$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.18 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 1,096,699$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 0c | 707,544$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.75 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 0c | 604,816$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…cbf1backed Yes | 1c | 500,858$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 0c | 430,806$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 427,509$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.49 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed Yes | 1c | 283,251$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 283,198$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.59 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…5effbacked Yes | 0c | 275,235$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 0c | 262,503$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…05e6backed Yes | 0c | 205,470$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…6eecbacked Yes | 0c | 198,371$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed Yes | 0c | 193,568$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…55c1backed Yes | 0c | 190,955$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 0c | 187,567$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Yes | 0c | 163,395$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…4d78backed Yes | 0c | 161,719$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 0c | 110,886$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 105,963$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.85 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 0c | 102,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 0c | 100,798$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.78 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…ada7backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 96,832$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 0c | 96,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 93,493$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b83abacked Yes | 0c | 90,549$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 0c | 86,802$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 0c | 86,350$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.39 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…4863backed Yes | 0c | 79,147$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed Yes | 0c | 76,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…e644backed Yes | 0c | 75,649$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 0c | 68,880$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 0c | 65,442$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 65,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 1c | 63,154$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 0c | 62,497$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 62,100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 0c | 50,113$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccb…d731backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…395cbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 0c | 48,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 0c | 42,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…67d9backed Yes | 0c | 38,364$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 0c | 37,713$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 0c | 37,411$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 36,278$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…a356backed Yes | 0c | 35,061$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cb…ecb2backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…132fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,655$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…e353backed Yes | 0c | 32,568$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 0c | 32,263$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…2798backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,861$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 1c | 28,744$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 0c | 25,843$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…cbbcbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…9ee1backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes | 0c | 24,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…de52backed Yes | 0c | 23,147$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…3cf1backed Yes | 0c | 22,762$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 0c | 22,485$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…b8eabacked Yes | 1c | 22,249$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…ebb4backed Yes | 0c | 21,793$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…9901backed Yes | 0c | 21,430$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…c65ebacked Yes | 1c | 21,284$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f8…9f7ebacked Yes | 1c | 21,239$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked Yes | 0c | 21,187$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 1c | 21,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…572ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,665$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec77…141cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…2f0bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…5bf4backed Yes | 0c | 19,224$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9122…b97dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,450$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,959$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 1c | 17,427$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 17,347$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…c8d2backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…fe2dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 0c | 16,643$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes | 0c | 16,566$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 16,234$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc641…ccccbacked Yes | 1c | 16,151$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.