Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6eace32f283eda179c15d447fe61f0426846bace5c583a967ddeaba58c2f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,000,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,869,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,000,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25d…1ae4backed Yes | 0c | 3,853,055$9,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,199.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…8556backed Yes | 0c | 2,085,214$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9793…789cbacked Yes | 0c | 1,014,896$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,209.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 848,763$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.53 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372c…1004backed Yes | 1c | 687,726$5,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,911.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 651,762$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.52 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 637,099$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 529,957$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d7…c137backed Yes | 0c | 500,738$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…de2ebacked Yes | 0c | 452,614$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de2…e6c9backed Yes | 2c | 444,854$8,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,552 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes | 2c | 435,475$7,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,943 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 425,000$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 1c | 410,184$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,820.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…e555backed Yes | 1c | 393,942$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd459…8ebbbacked Yes | 1c | 295,833$4,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,138.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…0075backed Yes | 0c | 280,018$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 0c | 233,404$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 215,484$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.45 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 213,238$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…618cbacked Yes | 0c | 193,815$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…b89cbacked Yes | 0c | 189,199$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 3c | 183,038$5,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,895.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 175,957$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.54 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…13ffbacked Yes | 0c | 172,934$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…2204backed Yes | 1c | 166,053$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…2053backed Yes | 1c | 155,494$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…fa07backed Yes | 1c | 149,874$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9260…922bbacked Yes | 0c | 149,389$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 148,470$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.23 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…c9adbacked Yes | 0c | 129,208$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 121,919$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.97 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 1c | 118,499$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.12 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…42d9backed Yes | 0c | 113,286$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…69ebbacked Yes | 1c | 111,896$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…592cbacked Yes | 0c | 108,843$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe927…ca72backed Yes | 0c | 101,866$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 1c | 90,901$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…6a9ebacked Yes | 1c | 87,034$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…7d92backed Yes | 1c | 81,249$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 81,137$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 1c | 80,733$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.59 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 78,275$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.28 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 1c | 74,989$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.87 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…ab7bbacked Yes | 0c | 74,950$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc9…8c2dbacked Yes | 0c | 71,380$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a47abacked Yes | 0c | 71,375$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 69,506$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.43 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…3549backed Yes | 0c | 68,831$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…4bcabacked Yes | 0c | 66,223$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…7250backed Yes | 0c | 62,854$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…f400backed Yes | 0c | 60,950$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 60,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…a0e0backed Yes | 0c | 60,178$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f38…14a8backed Yes | 1c | 58,753$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 1c | 57,333$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 1c | 53,091$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…71c6backed Yes | 0c | 50,918$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…5c11backed Yes | 1c | 49,315$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 48,979$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.56 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 0c | 48,043$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…4415backed Yes | 1c | 43,036$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 40,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…ee4cbacked Yes | 2c | 39,416$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 38,844$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.27 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…a5c8backed Yes | 0c | 36,366$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 35,670$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.69 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 1c | 35,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…8d25backed Yes | 1c | 34,917$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…16a0backed Yes | 0c | 33,217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 32,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 1c | 31,000$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…8a7cbacked Yes | 1c | 30,632$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,575$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2b…b81bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,393$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 2c | 30,330$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…e716backed Yes | 0c | 28,083$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…434dbacked Yes | 1c | 26,487$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…cbc7backed Yes | 1c | 26,198$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…fdd5backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d59…23b2backed Yes | 0c | 24,693$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…389cbacked Yes | 0c | 24,667$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf019…cc01backed Yes | 0c | 24,660$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 23,987$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.51 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…137bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,178$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 0c | 23,052$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 21,740$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.94 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…6873backed Yes | 0c | 21,467$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 20,902$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.53 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 1c | 20,559$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…fdbdbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 2c | 19,669$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 2c | 19,000$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…75a5backed Yes | 0c | 18,589$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,281$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 1c | 18,175$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…a710backed Yes | 1c | 17,964$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 17,765$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.