Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba397f49b319dccb5f1b92c3710518d1c4f8f1dee86577b4bb243f3ca77e389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,959,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $530,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,959,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 301,826$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.83 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 0c | 120,248$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 88,002$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe8…c4e8backed Yes | 0c | 77,043$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 73,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 0c | 63,222$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…d759backed Yes | 0c | 55,216$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ff…d8bdbacked Yes | 0c | 53,995$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 53,777$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…0abcbacked Yes | 0c | 52,259$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 0c | 41,295$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…9ac0backed Yes | 0c | 36,718$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…1929backed Yes | 0c | 27,486$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…f630backed Yes | 0c | 26,627$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…2a83backed Yes | 0c | 26,262$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…f4d3backed Yes | 0c | 26,259$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…9e41backed Yes | 0c | 26,259$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…fcc2backed Yes | 0c | 26,150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3df…dfa0backed Yes | 0c | 26,110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…9347backed Yes | 0c | 25,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…c7e5backed Yes | 0c | 25,527$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…71a7backed Yes | 0c | 23,894$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 22,263$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…2d80backed Yes | 0c | 21,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 0c | 19,108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…9982backed Yes | 0c | 17,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc0…0ca6backed Yes | 0c | 17,190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc634…26abbacked Yes | 0c | 16,098$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…a8d1backed Yes | 0c | 15,382$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 14,856$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 0c | 14,197$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,629$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 0c | 11,314$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,635$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fa…a59ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd61…e592backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…1986backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…dbdabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…8734backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fca…4224backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b36…1966backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…0a46backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…f9dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6ebabacked Yes | 0c | 9,531$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac6…04f7backed Yes | 0c | 9,345$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…63c7backed Yes | 1c | 8,928$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e5…aabebacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.