TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,336,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,003,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,336,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes0c1,515,186$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.25283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c479,999$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c284,395$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.25820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c254,160$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.51352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes0c140,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402512%3 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…c232backed Yes0c112,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes0c109,506$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.91156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes0c98,805$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.322412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-59.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4f…6ebabacked Yes0c70,539$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.161323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-60.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes0c70,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c60,002$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeece…6484backed Yes0c51,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c50,530$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.59230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes0c50,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x870c…5806backed Yes1c46,846$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.331118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-70.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes0c44,652$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.34415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes0c36,063$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.12150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes0c31,989$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce9…ced7backed Yes0c31,788$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6836…f2cdbacked Yes0c31,677$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes0c30,965$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.35911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e9…3cf1backed Yes0c30,029$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8685…f32ebacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35a…c452backed Yes0c23,666$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes0c23,629$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes1c23,443$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes1c22,882$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.32540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c22,752$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.59254%1 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-77%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a45…6ffabacked Yes1c19,937$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542c…bdffbacked Yes0c19,745$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes0c19,023$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.072321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes0c18,790$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.378333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a97…fbd8backed Yes0c17,792$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…a356backed Yes0c14,379$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66d…cd0ebacked Yes0c13,329$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25240%0 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes0c11,546$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes0c11,505$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes0c11,107$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.93911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked Yes0c11,018$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc03…1cbcbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c10,911$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-85.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa28e…b220backed Yes0c10,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…e623backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5051…be57backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5d…19f3backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0300…f811backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c00…2d1ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e9…e26cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x894e…3350backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a3…8021backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ab…d621backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26db…3a12backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73db…0ed3backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc429…f8f2backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea9d…662cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd1…4a99backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2a…7111backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x638a…bfe9backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48e…a144backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-85.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes0c9,084$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3f…1819backed Yes0c8,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd572…a526backed Yes0c7,977$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Yes0c7,932$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca7…d842backed Yes0c7,800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c7,784$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.233187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c7,395$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81643.1%2 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c7,359$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.96630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35b6…1092backed Yes0c7,083$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc79a…cb15backed Yes0c7,050$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f5…c6a9backed Yes0c6,750$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20230%0 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes0c6,650$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb4…801cbacked Yes0c6,350$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449d…100cbacked Yes0c6,083$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…f5a5backed Yes0c5,820$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes0c5,808$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb6…9aa7backed Yes0c5,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes0c5,689$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.12150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes1c5,527$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes1c5,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.97316.5%2 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-71.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes0c4,648$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.76591.7%1 W · 58 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-73.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f0…583dbacked Yes0c4,105$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d2…c177backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes0c3,953$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.865038%19 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f8…9f7ebacked Yes1c3,872$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-54.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.