Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998acf9ed1bbda06d59df70786441468872c72b2de59cacbea93625b14a5efcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,336,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,003,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,336,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 0c | 1,515,186$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.25 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 479,999$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 284,395$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.25 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 254,160$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.51 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c232backed Yes | 0c | 112,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 0c | 109,506$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.91 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 98,805$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.32 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6ebabacked Yes | 0c | 70,539$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 60,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeece…6484backed Yes | 0c | 51,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 50,530$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed Yes | 1c | 46,846$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 0c | 44,652$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 0c | 36,063$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 0c | 31,989$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Yes | 0c | 31,788$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6836…f2cdbacked Yes | 0c | 31,677$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes | 0c | 30,965$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…3cf1backed Yes | 0c | 30,029$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8685…f32ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed Yes | 0c | 23,666$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,629$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed Yes | 1c | 23,443$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 1c | 22,882$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 22,752$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…6ffabacked Yes | 1c | 19,937$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…bdffbacked Yes | 0c | 19,745$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 0c | 19,023$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 18,790$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 17,792$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…a356backed Yes | 0c | 14,379$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…cd0ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,329$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…d0d0backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 11,546$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 11,505$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 0c | 11,107$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Yes | 0c | 11,018$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…1cbcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,911$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e623backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…be57backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…19f3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…f811backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c00…2d1ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e9…e26cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…3350backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a3…8021backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…d621backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…3a12backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73db…0ed3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…f8f2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9d…662cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…4a99backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…7111backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…bfe9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…a144backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 0c | 9,084$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3f…1819backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…a526backed Yes | 0c | 7,977$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 0c | 7,932$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca7…d842backed Yes | 0c | 7,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,784$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 7,395$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,359$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…1092backed Yes | 0c | 7,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…cb15backed Yes | 0c | 7,050$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f5…c6a9backed Yes | 0c | 6,750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked Yes | 0c | 6,650$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…801cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…100cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…f5a5backed Yes | 0c | 5,820$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 0c | 5,808$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…9aa7backed Yes | 0c | 5,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,689$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,527$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 0c | 4,648$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…583dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…c177backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 0c | 3,953$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f8…9f7ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,872$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?this page
- Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?No won
- Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.