TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdf00…6767

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
147
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: F1, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+41.1%+$26.74
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$507.99
Will Scott Bessent throw a punch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+53.8%+$37.69
Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$155
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+100%+$25
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$62
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+147%+$391.14
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+57.5%+$57.49
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$103.03
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$235
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$167
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+79%+$236.89
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Zelenskyy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+244.9%+$367.36
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.55
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$255
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+241.7%+$241.69
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 21 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Cricket — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Big Bash League: Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Sixers (Game Final)backed Sydney Sixers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Big Bash League: Sydney Sixers vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game Semi Finals)backed Sydney Sixers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+83.9%+$41.95
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars (Game Eliminator)backed Hobart Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+96.1%+$48.04
Big Bash League: Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Sixers (Game Qualifier 1)backed Perth Scorchers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+78.9%+$39.46
Big Bash League: Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Stars (Game 1)backed Perth Scorchers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+66.7%+$27.6
Big Bash League: Sydney Sixers vs Sydney Thunder (Game 1)backed Sydney Sixers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+49.3%+$16.49
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat (Game 1)backed Brisbane Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+122.2%+$36.67
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars vs Adelaide Strikers (Game 1)backed Adelaide Strikers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Big Bash League: Sydney Thunder vs Melbourne Renegades (Game 1)backed Sydney Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Perth Scorchers (Game 1)backed Perth Scorchers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars (Game 1)backed Melbourne Renegades · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Sixers (Game 1)backed Sydney Sixers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+127.3%+$25.45
Big Bash League: Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Renegades (Game 1)backed Melbourne Renegades · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Thunder (Game 1)backed Sydney Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder (Game 1)backed Sydney Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Renegades (Game 1)backed Melbourne Renegades · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Will England win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+85.2%+$42.59
Big Bash League: Perth Scorchers vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1)backed Perth Scorchers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Australia win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+26.7%+$4.64
All 19 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$72.06
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+69.5%+$102.5
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$119.48
Will Burnley FC vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$55.24
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Everton win on 2025-08-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$14
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$18.82
Will Manchester City vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$144.83
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$35.13
Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$59.48
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$66.6
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$298
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+400%+$80
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$774
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.25
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+245.2%+$367.81
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tienbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruudbacked Cilic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinkabacked Wawrinka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+66.7%+$20
Australian Open Men's: Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirribacked Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Novak Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Australian Open: Zverev vs. Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Australian Open: Alcaraz vs. Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+163.2%+$134.27
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+187.1%+$776.47
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+150%+$150
All 9 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+151.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$24.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$73.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lebron announce marketing stunt Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+49.3%+$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+32.9%+$105.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$136
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$155.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.