Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb811d71dfb09aa60982c9fb7acce9bb961c31b56fa9d3c884f260caf9b339a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 6c | 16,526$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.74 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 1c | 10,061$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 73c | 7,077$5,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.9 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…c864backed No | 77c | 6,347$4,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 5,608$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.61 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 24c | 5,529$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.37 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 7c | 4,070$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.82 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 13c | 4,011$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.96 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 13c | 4,005$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 24c | 3,897$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.27 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,590$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 3,006$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.2 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,488$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…6977backed Yes | 25c | 2,442$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 12c | 2,400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 34c | 2,389$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.89 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes | 30c | 2,340$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 69c | 2,175$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 29c | 2,161$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,999$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.43 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 30c | 1,908$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.06 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,752$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.46 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 72c | 1,686$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.92 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 19c | 1,532$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 16c | 1,525$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 20c | 1,335$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.43 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 1,265$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.9 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 64c | 1,205$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.01 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,194$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 71c | 1,100$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.69 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 1,007$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…fb1fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,001$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 79c | 999.97$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…0b2ebacked No | 52c | 970.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 956.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 926$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 62c | 895$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.45 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 67c | 885.27$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.93 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 76c | 862.79$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 25c | 862.77$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 14c | 855.31$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 52c | 851$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 74c | 850$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 68c | 762$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.66 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…ae01backed Yes | 27c | 761.22$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 23c | 756.37$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 19c | 725$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 29c | 712.67$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 709.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 692.93$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.73 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes | 10c | 645.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed No | 60c | 637$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 3c | 590.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 587.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 68c | 550$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.83 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 32c | 541.33$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.25 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1c0dbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 474.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…c4ccbacked Yes | 30c | 450$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 436.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 5c | 435.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 33c | 421.59$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c60…45b8backed Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a22…a3babacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 19c | 394.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 70c | 360$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…0262backed Yes | 6c | 336.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 18c | 335.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 65c | 333$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…67d0backed Yes | 22c | 324.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…4377backed No | 68c | 292.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…85d6backed Yes | 8c | 288.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…3e33backed No | 78c | 256.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 24c | 247.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes | 22c | 231.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…5403backed No | 80c | 228.23$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 19c | 223.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 7c | 210.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 199.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 6c | 175.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 170.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 170.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 73c | 170$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…b14cbacked Yes | 34c | 170$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 25c | 167$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…c607backed No | 64c | 156.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.