TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes6c16,526$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.744818.8%9 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes1c10,061$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456813.2%9 W · 59 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No73c7,077$5,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.94045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…c864backed No77c6,347$4,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes3c5,608$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.619115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes24c5,529$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.3726238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes7c4,070$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.82128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-86.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes13c4,011$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.963438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes13c4,005$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.591346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003745.9%17 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes24c3,897$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.272222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,590$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4813910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes24c3,006$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.210137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,488$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.15327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d7…6977backed Yes25c2,442$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes12c2,400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2804634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes34c2,389$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.8923435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes30c2,340$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.5590%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No69c2,175$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.122055%11 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes29c2,161$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.6360%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c1,999$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4321426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes30c1,908$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.069037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes29c1,752$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.468045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No72c1,686$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.9224258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes19c1,532$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.061020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6648backed Yes16c1,525$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes20c1,335$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.431612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes26c1,265$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.911040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No64c1,205$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.013336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes34c1,194$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No71c1,100$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.6915451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes3c1,025$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.994010%4 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c1,007$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.91712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc87f…fb1fbacked Yes30c1,001$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.56156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-81%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No79c999.97$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.994146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd3…0b2ebacked No52c970.36$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.36650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes2c956.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c926$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No62c895$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.452766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No67c885.27$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.937761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No76c862.79$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.214147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes25c862.77$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes14c855.31$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1186336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No52c851$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.352050%10 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+89.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No74c850$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2222759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No68c762$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.668337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5891…ae01backed Yes27c761.22$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes23c756.37$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6212937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes19c725$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5913622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes29c712.67$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.489326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes3c709.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.571315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c692.93$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7326318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes10c645.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.62100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe964…f5a9backed No60c637$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Yes3c590.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c587.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No68c550$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.839734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes32c541.33$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2511647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+101.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes20c500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b4…1c0dbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes17c474.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7425528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1775…c4ccbacked Yes30c450$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes3c436.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.416420.3%13 W · 51 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes5c435.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7411322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7079…a828backed Yes33c421.59$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.41020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-71.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c60…45b8backed Yes3c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.680%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a22…a3babacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes19c394.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7560%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No70c360$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.36051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked No65c350$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1223863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb593…0262backed Yes6c336.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed Yes18c335.78$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.441520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No65c333$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.775632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cde…67d0backed Yes22c324.18$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.422653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb084…92dcbacked Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd480…4377backed No68c292.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7512100%12 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51fd…85d6backed Yes8c288.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7286…3e33backed No78c256.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes24c247.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes22c231.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.064757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed No80c228.23$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes19c223.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.486518.5%12 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes7c210.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c199.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes6c175.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.015356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c170.76$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3541736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes6c170.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.962321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No73c170$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.23145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f25…b14cbacked Yes34c170$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.24643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes25c167$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.23633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef6f…c607backed No64c156.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.