TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc9ad…79d0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
224
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$122
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+211.7%+$1,085.25
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,192Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$607.89
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$453
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$490
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$473
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$199.5
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+51.5%+$169.99
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$568
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,538Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,538
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$240
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$634Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+26.2%+$166
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,609Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.9%+$546.09
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,533Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+43.5%+$667
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+48.8%+$32.8
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$74
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+62%+$150.82
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$153.46
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.45
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.1%+$159.2
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+632.5%+$588.54
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$95.7
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$58
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT3351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+20.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$62
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$209.99
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+145.7%+$59.3
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$749Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+46.9%+$351
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$43.32
Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+123.6%+$81.86
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$65.49
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,358Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+28.9%+$391.9
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$130.85
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$87
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$104.5
Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$554Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$146
Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.09
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 75 and 78%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+36.3%+$218.4
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+1,328.6%+$232.5
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+131.1%+$777.1
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$773Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$772.6
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,062Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,062.3
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,481Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+48.9%+$1,213.57
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$284.4
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.5
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-43.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.5
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$134.89
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$946Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$945.83
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$124
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.5
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$187.99
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.4%+$29.17
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$39.82
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$302.18
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$101.99
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$591Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+38.3%+$226.44
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$208
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.75
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$190
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$475.4
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$162.5
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$62
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$86
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$93.98
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$585.34
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$24.75
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$254
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$959Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+64.2%+$615.84
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$24.85
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$90.72
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+172%+$104.06
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+32.5%+$74.02
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$12
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+154.2%+$73.52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$180.31
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$385.91
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+56.3%+$36
More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.69
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$53
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.7
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+132.8%+$540.14
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+60.8%+$338.45
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+46.4%+$29.14
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$334.42
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.8
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+59.2%+$46.5
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+64.6%+$39.25
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33%+$169.95
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,027Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+81.6%+$837.97
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+33.6%+$102.43
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+239%+$422.99
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+35.5%+$131.05
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$261.94
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+156.4%+$122
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+28%+$76.5
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+32.4%+$141.3
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+33.6%+$57.49
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$134
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.94
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+64.9%+$121.31
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+51.5%+$13.05
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+166.8%+$125.05
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$90
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$105
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,634Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+28.5%+$466.2
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+165%+$877.89
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$568.05
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+101.3%+$151
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+30.8%+$101.2
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$108.05
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$150
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
X relaunches Vine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,484Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+37.9%+$562.01
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.6%+$26.8
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+96.1%+$49
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+81.8%+$90
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.99
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$264.79
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+76.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will St. John's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.16
Arkansas vs. St. John'sbacked Arkansas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
North Carolina vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+53.3%+$123.45
All 3 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$68
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+190.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+190.7%+$393.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oregon vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+58.7%+$37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Aug 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-08-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC København win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.