World Politics · resolved market
Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe782d03efacf20b105f8b721d39e5f1f1a17d6d2556fa9356ac0d016d631f561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $328,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 21c | 47,957$10,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,127.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 35c | 17,498$6,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,341.65 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 79c | 14,661$11,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.97 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 12,480$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.75 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…6440backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 44c | 4,538$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.54 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…972bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,011$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,889$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed Yes | 18c | 2,839$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.09 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed No | 68c | 2,720$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,653$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.63 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…32f8backed No | 16c | 2,625$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +303.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed No | 8c | 2,500$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,045$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed No | 12c | 2,010$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.08 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859f…112fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,989$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked No | 16c | 1,881$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 75c | 1,520$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…cea3backed No | 13c | 1,491$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +652.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,235$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…aeb8backed Yes | 36c | 1,100$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 1,006$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.48 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,002$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…4422backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 13c | 976.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.94 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…ffd9backed Yes | 15c | 975.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f07…b0d3backed No | 15c | 974.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +552.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…b99fbacked No | 15c | 955.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 15c | 921.86$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 15c | 823.32$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.82 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…9091backed Yes | 2c | 805.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 11c | 800$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.9 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 11c | 789.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 766$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed No | 9c | 755.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.56 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 9c | 754.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.81 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed Yes | 6c | 724.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 720.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes | 4c | 706.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 79c | 700$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 11c | 686.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f2…010abacked No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 14c | 600$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 519.57$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.17 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed No | 9c | 408.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.87 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 408.04$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.87 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed No | 12c | 401.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +703.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 18c | 400$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…1997backed Yes | 19c | 363.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked No | 12c | 349.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 11c | 324.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ee…5ea5backed No | 10c | 312$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…d260backed Yes | 42c | 300$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 24c | 296.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 12c | 296.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.51 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5effbacked Yes | 6c | 266.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 260.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed No | 15c | 254.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.49 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 26c | 206.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd922…310fbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…4a58backed Yes | 7c | 194.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…41edbacked No | 15c | 188.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 13c | 154.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…d920backed No | 79c | 148.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 27c | 147.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…0c39backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…aa14backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…336dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked No | 15c | 105$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…c338backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 47c | 80.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 72.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ed…c443backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…0e99backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…bcaabacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.