TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$328,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$352,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d73…bae7backed Yes21c47,957$10,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,127.182040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed No35c17,498$6,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,341.658341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No79c14,661$11,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,075.9720538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes9c12,480$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.758838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b0…6440backed Yes19c5,000$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.791637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec2…b04abacked Yes44c4,538$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.542623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6091…972bbacked Yes9c3,011$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.991957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,950$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.282939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes6c2,889$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.595420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed Yes18c2,839$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.093212.5%4 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5499…0ed5backed No68c2,720$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.892433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes35c2,653$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.634515.6%7 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0beb…32f8backed No16c2,625$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2132100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+303.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02f0…57b6backed No8c2,500$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.28540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+184.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c2,045$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3516616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1707…93c4backed No12c2,010$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.083531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x859f…112fbacked Yes55c1,989$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked No16c1,881$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.13633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes2c1,600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305815.5%9 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No75c1,520$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3822142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda1b…cea3backed No13c1,491$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+652.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,235$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.531,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771a…aeb8backed Yes36c1,100$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.031258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No48c1,006$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.4854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes12c1,002$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.963912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes2c1,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd26…4422backed No12c1,000$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8801442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+100.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No13c976.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.942416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad99…ffd9backed Yes15c975.3$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.34540%18 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f07…b0d3backed No15c974.64$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+552.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc7b…b99fbacked No15c955.66$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+113.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked No15c921.86$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+125%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No15c823.32$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.826741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ed…9091backed Yes2c805.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.721118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid+136.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No11c800$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.97423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No11c789.47$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+73.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c766$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.656622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed No9c755.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.563821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked No9c754.58$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.815117.6%9 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d1…12b4backed Yes6c724.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes11c720.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5745723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes4c706.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.362055%11 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No79c700$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1463351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+20.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes11c686.72$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f2…010abacked No15c666.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.671050%5 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+92.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed No14c600$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+136.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c519.57$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.1788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No14c499.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.992347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+100.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed No9c408.57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.872236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes53c408.04$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed No12c401.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+703.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes4c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145032%16 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No15c400$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34038023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No18c400$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.72548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes4c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.818628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…1997backed Yes19c363.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.143225%8 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…e6babacked No12c349.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.52825%7 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes11c324.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.713537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ee…5ea5backed No10c312$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f81…d260backed Yes42c300$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1273036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No14c299.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.9911039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes24c296.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.571625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No12c296.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5113139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2063…1eedbacked No15c266.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+213.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c65…5effbacked Yes6c266.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes13c260.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0844921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfe1…6c98backed No15c254.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+235.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No9c249.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.495132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes26c206.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.983759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd922…310fbacked No13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c05…4a58backed Yes7c194.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…41edbacked No15c188.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3158backed No13c154.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+86.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf715…d920backed No79c148.58$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No27c147.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.321256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1017…0c39backed No16c125$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…aa14backed No77c120$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes35c120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf062…336dbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked No15c105$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.25933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863522.9%8 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf13…690abacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc82e…c338backed No18c83.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+268.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes47c80.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes15c72.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9737117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.32842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ed…c443backed No16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eef…0e99backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe250…bcaabacked Yes36c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.631443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.